Weekly long-range pattern update
Our confidence is lower than normal on this update. There is conflicting forecast model data for the first two weeks of June across North America, but there is consistency for the idea of a wetter pattern along the Gulf Coast and into Florida. The MJO forecasts are fairly consistent and by themselves would argue for a warming trend across the Midwest by the second week of June, while also suggesting a cooling trend for the interior West and portions of the Southeast. It's now convective season, so longer-range precipitation outlooks typically have lower skill than they do in the cold season.