Updated Long Range Model Forecast
Before I get to the ECMWF long range weekly forecast, I wanted to mention that the International Research Institute for Climate and Society has declared that the weak La Nina conditions in the Pacific have dissipated and we are now officially in a near-neutral phase of the ENSO as of today.
El Nino conditions are present when the sea surface temperature anomaly is +.45 C or higher for at least three consecutive months. La Nina is -.45 C or lower.
Below is the latest ENSO forecasts with the average of several models. This was just released today.
The consensus is for weak El Nino conditions starting late in the summer or fall.
---------- Here is the latest ECMWF weekly interpretation
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Snow overnight and through Friday for central Ontario
Winter not done yet......Small, but potent storm will spread a narrow band of moderate to heavy, wet snow into parts of central Ontario through Friday. Moderate accumulations possible for Sault Ste. Marie and Sudbury.
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Not yet sure what to make out of the late weekend and early next week storm for the Northeast U.S. and eastern Canada. Computer models still at odds on how much energy phases together. Somewhere from western Pennsylvania/West Virginia to eastern Ontario and up to northwestern Maine could very well see accumulating snow out of this. More on that later.
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