The 2016 spring outlook for Canada

Projected spring temperature departures

Projected spring precipitation departures

Below are some of my thoughts about what I expect for the upcoming spring......

1. Early start to spring across large portions of the country.

2. Could end up as a top 10 or even top five warmest springs on record for Canada as a whole.

3. Despite weakening, El Nino will continue to have an influence on the overall weather pattern for Canada during the spring.

4. Compared to the last two seasons with near record ice coverage, ice extent across the Great Lakes this season is well below normal and will have no negative impact on temperatures near the lakes this season.

5. A prevailing northwesterly flow of air extensive snow pack will delay the onset of spring over far northern Quebec and Labrador.

6. Despite the projected above to well above-normal temperatures, spring ski conditions in the Rockies and coastal range will be very good due to a deep snowpack. Weather conditions should also be favorable for skiing and getting to the resorts.

7. A persistent area of high pressure over western Canada will keep much of the region drier than usual this spring as the main storm track shifts northward into Alaska and the Yukon Territory.

8. In the East, the main storm track will be across the southern U.S. then up into Atlantic Canada, leading to a continuation of stormy conditions from Nova Scotia to Newfoundland this spring.

9. With the main storm track far to the south and east, this will leave the Great Lakes region, including much of Ontario and southwestern Quebec drier compared to normal for the upcoming season. The drier conditions will allow for some early season warmth, while nights will remain cold due to less cloud cover (more nights with strong radiational cooling).

10. Based on our current outlook (drier, lower snow pack), the risk for major spring flooding from the Prairies to Quebec is lower than usual.

Long-term trend of spring temperature departures for Canada as a whole (1948-2014). Since 1948, the average temperature for Canada during the spring season has warmed ~ 1.6 degrees Celsius based on the linear trend. Image courtesy Environment Canada.

Any questions? Feel free to post them in the comment section below.

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