Snowstorm update

<strong>Brief Saturday update on snowfall potential
</strong>

Latest indications are that the coastal storm will track a little more to the east before turning more north, similar to the trend that we were seeing with the European model yesterday. Anyway, this shift likely means that the heaviest snow will also be farther east and centered over PEI and northern Nova Scotia.

<img src="http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2016/590x331_11261634_pageccc.jpg"/>

Farther west, the axis of the surface trough will also be a little farther to the east, which means the steadiest snow today through tonight will be northeast of Quebec City and down into northern Maine and northwestern New Brunswick. There will likely be a rip-off zone (in terms of snowfall) somewhere between the weakening surface trough to the west and the strengthening coastal storm to the east . It looks like that will be over central/southern New Brunswick. I would not be surprised if there is little or no snow near and just north of the Saint John area.

Farther east, rain will change to heavy wet snow during the day Sunday from southwestern Nova Scotia to northern Nova Scotia as colder air gets wrapped in on the back side of the storm.

In terms of wind, we may see some gusts in excess of 80 km/h from the north coast of PEI through Cape Breton Sunday and then up into southwestern Newfoundland.

Original post from Friday

A storm will quickly intensify off the New England coast Saturday night. There is still plenty of question in regards to its track late Saturday night through Sunday. The American and Canadian models are initially farther west with the storm track and take it up through central Nova Scotia on Sunday. If this track holds then the heavy snowfall will be mainly over New Brunswick and perhaps extreme western PEI and northwestern Nova Scotia. The latest European model takes the storm center initially farther east before turning it northward across eastern Nova Scotia. Based on that track the heaviest snow would be over southeastern New Brunswick, western and northern half of Nova Scotia and PEI.

At this point I will compromise with a slight lean toward the European model. Based on this idea I expect the heaviest snow to fall over eastern New Brunswick, western PEI and through northwestern Nova Scotia Sunday into Sunday night. There is also the chance that the higher ground over interior southwestern Nova Scotia could end up with locally higher amounts than what we are showing. See map below.

<img src="http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2016/590x331_11251956_pagerd.jpg"/>

Farther to the west, across southeastern Quebec and Maine, there will be a a band of accumulating snow Saturday into Saturday night as a surface and upper trough set up across the region. The snow will taper off in these areas by Sunday as the energy transfers to the coastal storm farther to the east. I can see how parts of central and south-central New Brunswick end up with lower amounts as this region could end up in some subsidence (sinking air) in between the trough to the west and the coastal storm to the east.

Report a Typo