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Interesting weather pattern setting up across North America as we progress through November and get into early December.
--A series of potent, Pacific storms will likely impact southern BC and the U.S. Pacific Northwest between Nov. 13 and 23. Expect several rounds of heavier rain and gusty winds for Vancouver Island and the mainland coast. Heavy snowfall for the Coastal Range and Rockies should help set the ski season off on a good start.
--A strong Arctic, cold front will press southward through Ontario and Quebec on Thursday. Behind the front, rain showers will quickly change to snow showers and a brief, heavier snow squall. There is the potential for brief whiteout conditions with any squall from southern and eastern Ontario through southern Quebec late Thursday afternoon and into the night. These squalls can quickly drop visibility making travel dangerous for motorists, especially on highways. Roads will generally be wet Thursday afternoon, but untreated roads may briefly get snow covered and icy Thursday evening and night as temperatures rapidly fall below the freezing mark.
In addition to the cold, northwesterly winds will be quite strong Thursday night into early Friday with gusts in the 60- to 80-km/h range from eastern Ontario through Quebec and into western New Brunswick.
For the GTA, I think the best chance for a brief, heavy snow squall will come Thursday evening. I expect a covering of snow for Toronto Thursday evening.
In terms of lake-effect snow, it will not a major event due to the quick speed of the storm system and significant wind shear. However, I can see a general 5-8 cm of snow late Thursday into early Friday from the Blue Mountain region to near Barrie and then just inland from the Lake Huron shore and southeastward to just north of London, Ontario.
Snow squalls and stronger winds will likely get into New Brunswick early Friday.
--Potential for a significant coastal storm Tuesday into Wednesday next week in the Maritimes. Too early to say where the rain/snow line may fall.
My latest interpretation of the weekly long range forecast models with input from current observations and teleconnections......
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A drier and milder pattern for the West while the East experiences real fall.
Major shift in the weather pattern on the way.
Extreme weather pattern across North America to persist into next week.
Plenty of cold for the Prairies and more snow as well.
Coldest air will be directed into the Prairies over the next 1-2 weeks.
Chilly air to expand eastward as we head into October.
My thoughts on the overall pattern for the next two weeks in Canada.