As I have been saying recently, I am fairly happy with what I posted in October, especially for western Canada. Most of the adjustments were made farther east.

My confidence in this long-term forecast remains greatest across western Canada and lowest across Quebec and the Maritimes.

As I was preparing this update I made some brief notes in no particular order....

--Going with the idea of a slightly weaker La Nina through the winter than what I expected in October, but just slightly.

--Cold should make its home mostly in the west most of this winter, with appearances in the east, but more in and out.

--Expect plenty of snowfall across central/northwestern Ontario into central Quebec, but it will not be terribly cold due to the prevailing storm track and above-normal cloud cover (acts as a blanket).

--Expect more wind than usual for the Prairies and Rockies this winter, which also means that dangerous wind chills will be an issue.

--Great Lakes still running 1-2.5 celsius above normal which ups the potential for big, lake-effect events if we can get a period of sustained cold and wind. Prime lake-effect season may last farther into the winter as well, but the overall pattern does not support a lot of

long

duration lake-effect snow events.

--I still think there will be some sort of blocking pattern (-NAO) setting up this winter (perhaps second half) despite no signs of it as of right now. Sea ice extending over northeastern Canada still near record low, and this could help lead to some blocking as the air flow patterns get altered. This link is still being tested and far from a certainty. Just something to throw out there.

--Since it looks like there will be little, if any, blocking through the end of this month, we are probably looking at more normal temps over far northeastern Canada, but areas near the Hudson Bay/Strait will remain above normal regardless of the pattern due to low sea ice coverage. Pretty confident with that.

--If we have less blocking over northeastern Canada than earlier thoughts, then I have more confidence in the stormier winter idea for most of Ontario with a common track of Colorado lows into the Great Lakes or Appalachians.

--Mean storm track still looks like mixed precip/rain events could limit snowfall potential for southwestern Ontario through Toronto, thus going near-normal for snow, but greater precipitation (rain/mix/snow combined) overall.

--As I said, core of cold will be over western Canada with mean high pressure ridge over northeast Pacific directing a drier, cold northwesterly flow into BC.

--Several Arctic air masses coming south into the Prairies this winter, especially western Prairies with more occurrences of upslope snow into southwestern Alberta right behind these Arctic fronts.

--Ocean water just off BC and Pacific Northwest remains much colder than normal and should stay that way through winter thanks to cold phase of PDO. This also argues for the drier, colder winter for BC.

--Feel there could be a secondary storm track up near Nova Scotia later in the winter, leading to increased snowfall over the interior Maritimes with more mixed events closer to the water.

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If you want to compare this update to the initial forecast back in October you can see it right here.

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