Canada winter 2019-20 outlook
By
Brett Anderson, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Oct 15, 2019 3:51 PM EDT
Lack of strong forecast signals for this upcoming winter means confidence for this outlook is lower than usual. Based on this, I may decide to update this forecast later in November.
British Columbia
Rather mild winter is anticipated as the bulk of Arctic intrusions will be delivered through central Canada. Places such as Vancouver, Victoria, Kamloops and Prince George should also be drier and have more sunshine than usual. The overall pattern will likely favor lower snowfall, which could potentially increase the potential for late-spring and summer drought next year. The main storm track will likely bring the bulk of rain and snowfall events to northwestern British Columbia this winter.
Alberta
Upcoming winter should be windier than usual with a higher number of Chinook events compared to normal in the southwestern portion of the province this winter. This can lead to dramatic swings in temperatures in Calgary and Lethbridge. For most of the province, it appears that many of the Arctic blasts will be directed farther to the east, but there will certainly be some bitterly cold outbreaks, especially during the first half of the winter. The ski season in the Rockies may get off to a quick start, thanks in part to significant early-season snowfall, but total winter snowfall for most resorts may end up being less than average for the winter as a whole.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Strongest surges of Arctic air are expected to be directed into the eastern half of the Prairies this winter with bursts of snowfall from quick-moving storms, this includes cities such as Regina and Winnipeg. However, a majority of these storms will have limited moisture, so I do not expect an unusually snowy winter, but what snow that does accumulate may stick around for an extended period of time. Late winter may see some modification in temperatures and drier conditions.
Ontario
A cold winter is likely in store for northwestern Ontario. Farther east, the remainder of the province looks rather stormy, especially during December and January with the potential for several significant snowfall events, including the greater Toronto area and up into the Ottawa Valley. The main storm track may shift farther east by February, which may lead to less snowfall, but an increase in very cold spells of weather and localized lake-effect snowfall. Based on this forecast, skiing and snowmobiling conditions look more favorable for this winter. Overall, the winter should feature near-average daytime highs, while nighttime lows will be above-average due to increased cloud cover. There is the potential for some significant ice or sleet events across interior southern Ontario, especially mid-winter.
Quebec
A snowy winter is anticipated across a large portion of the province, including Montreal and Quebec City, due to an increased number of moisture-laden storms coming up from the southwest. The bulk of the winter though does not look all that cold as the core of the Arctic intrusions will be directed more to the west. There is a chance that the later part of winter will turn cold as the storm track shifts more toward the Atlantic coast. Similar to Ontario, this may be a good winter for skiers and snowmobilers.
Atlantic Canada
The first half of the winter looks fairly mild with a more persistent southwesterly flow of air. Offshore water temperatures are also expected to run above normal which can also modify the air in coastal areas this winter. Rain or ice may be more favored than snow in places such as Saint John, New Brunswick; Halifax, Nova Scotia; and St. John's, Newfoundland, during the first half of the winter. The winter may start out dry, but will likely trend stormier during the middle and late part of the season. I think the biggest snow events of the season will occur from late January through early March. A colder pattern may set up in late winter and linger into early spring.
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Weather Blogs / Canadian weather
Canada winter 2019-20 outlook
By Brett Anderson, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Published Oct 15, 2019 3:51 PM EDT
Lack of strong forecast signals for this upcoming winter means confidence for this outlook is lower than usual. Based on this, I may decide to update this forecast later in November.
British Columbia
Rather mild winter is anticipated as the bulk of Arctic intrusions will be delivered through central Canada. Places such as Vancouver, Victoria, Kamloops and Prince George should also be drier and have more sunshine than usual. The overall pattern will likely favor lower snowfall, which could potentially increase the potential for late-spring and summer drought next year. The main storm track will likely bring the bulk of rain and snowfall events to northwestern British Columbia this winter.
Alberta
Upcoming winter should be windier than usual with a higher number of Chinook events compared to normal in the southwestern portion of the province this winter. This can lead to dramatic swings in temperatures in Calgary and Lethbridge. For most of the province, it appears that many of the Arctic blasts will be directed farther to the east, but there will certainly be some bitterly cold outbreaks, especially during the first half of the winter. The ski season in the Rockies may get off to a quick start, thanks in part to significant early-season snowfall, but total winter snowfall for most resorts may end up being less than average for the winter as a whole.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Strongest surges of Arctic air are expected to be directed into the eastern half of the Prairies this winter with bursts of snowfall from quick-moving storms, this includes cities such as Regina and Winnipeg. However, a majority of these storms will have limited moisture, so I do not expect an unusually snowy winter, but what snow that does accumulate may stick around for an extended period of time. Late winter may see some modification in temperatures and drier conditions.
Ontario
A cold winter is likely in store for northwestern Ontario. Farther east, the remainder of the province looks rather stormy, especially during December and January with the potential for several significant snowfall events, including the greater Toronto area and up into the Ottawa Valley. The main storm track may shift farther east by February, which may lead to less snowfall, but an increase in very cold spells of weather and localized lake-effect snowfall. Based on this forecast, skiing and snowmobiling conditions look more favorable for this winter. Overall, the winter should feature near-average daytime highs, while nighttime lows will be above-average due to increased cloud cover. There is the potential for some significant ice or sleet events across interior southern Ontario, especially mid-winter.
Quebec
A snowy winter is anticipated across a large portion of the province, including Montreal and Quebec City, due to an increased number of moisture-laden storms coming up from the southwest. The bulk of the winter though does not look all that cold as the core of the Arctic intrusions will be directed more to the west. There is a chance that the later part of winter will turn cold as the storm track shifts more toward the Atlantic coast. Similar to Ontario, this may be a good winter for skiers and snowmobilers.
Atlantic Canada
The first half of the winter looks fairly mild with a more persistent southwesterly flow of air. Offshore water temperatures are also expected to run above normal which can also modify the air in coastal areas this winter. Rain or ice may be more favored than snow in places such as Saint John, New Brunswick; Halifax, Nova Scotia; and St. John's, Newfoundland, during the first half of the winter. The winter may start out dry, but will likely trend stormier during the middle and late part of the season. I think the biggest snow events of the season will occur from late January through early March. A colder pattern may set up in late winter and linger into early spring.
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