Canada fall 2017 outlook
This is the fall outlook for Canada.
Overall, it looks like the pattern will be fairly warm across western Canada into early October, while parts of the east will continue to deal with more rain.
Latest trends now support nearly neutral to weak La Nina conditions this fall, which does not give us much in the way of clues. However, I will say that several of the analog years that we came out with are very similar in terms of projected patterns to some of the long-range seasonal forecast model outputs, which gives us a bit more confidence.
<img src="https://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2017/590x332_09061232_2017-canada-autumn-temps.jpg"/>
<img src="https://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2017/590x332_09061233_2017-canada-autumn-precip.jpg"/>
<strong>Below are some of the main points for the fall outlook.....</strong>
1. Little in the way of drought relief for southern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba.
2. Higher-than-average fire danger across the southern Prairies and northwestern Ontario. Below average for eastern Ontario and Quebec.
3. Warm and drier conditions expected to persist in southern BC for the early fall with ongoing, large wildfires across the interior and reduced air quality.
4. Pattern change the second half of the fall is expected to deliver stormier conditions to western BC with more normal temperatures.
5. Abnormally warm fall across Alberta, especially September and October.
6. Potential for earlier-than-normal freeze over the eastern Prairies and northwestern Ontario. November may feature several shots of winter-like cold air.
7. Wetter pattern returns from southern Ontario through Quebec and into the Maritimes October into November, but temperatures will be warmer than usual, especially the nights.
8. Rather mild fall for Atlantic Canada with later than usual frost/freeze.
9. Expect average to above-average fall color across Ontario and Quebec.
10. Water temperatures likely to average above to well above normal in the waters surrounding Atlantic Canada for fall.
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