Showers and thunderstorms Ohio Valley to Middle Atlantic to expand northeast by midweek
Shortly after 8 p.m. this evening, radar showed a band of showers and thunderstorms from near Pittsburgh to the Poconos. I could see the line north and northwest from our house:
The radar shows a thicker/more enhanced zone over Clearfield County, which is adjacent to Centre County, where we live. Since the whole line is drifting a little southward, we await the rain.
This will certainly not be the last rain we get between now and Friday. The upper air wind field is pretty much west to east, and several disturbances are triggering thunderstorms and showers:
This is the forecast flow alolft for Monday morning, 6-17-19.
As you can see, the most prominent band of showers and thunderstorms lines the Ohio Valley.
This afternoon's GFS model predicted the following rainfall amounts between now and Tuesday evening (a) and between now and Friday (b):
a. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms (some severe) are likely from the South-Central states to central and southern Pennsylvania.
b. The rainy weather will continue/expand in the some areas getting early-week rain... and it is shown to expand through New England.
Is any pattern change in sight? The upper air flow map shows a ridge building into the East next weekend.
If true, it will become very warm and humid in much of the Northeast by the end of official summer's first weekend. Longer-range forecasts suggest a heat wave ridge may set up in the Midwest as we go into July. This would allow some hot weather to reach the Northeast, but cold fronts may drop southward near the eastern margin of the heat wave high to prevent a long-lasting hot spell from totally taking over.
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