An 11-year forecast? What the weather might be for the 2032 Olympics
By
Mark Puleo, AccuWeather staff writer
Updated Jul 23, 2021 3:43 PM EDT
The Honourable Annastacia Palaszczuk MP, Premier of Queensland and Minister for Trade, holds the queue card after Brisbane was announced as the 2032 Summer Olympics host city during the IOC Session at Hotel Okura in Tokyo, Wednesday, July 21, 2021. (Toru Hanai/Pool Photo via AP)
As the Tokyo Olympics finally get underway this week, the gears of another Olympics have already begun turning a decade-plus in advance.
The International Olympic Committee (IOC) announced on Wednesday the host site for the 2032 Summer Olympics: Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
While that might sound too far into the future to care about, millions of aspiring athletes will be watching this current Olympics and dreamily setting their sights on the Games three rotations from now.
With the intense summer heat being one of the more scrutinized elements of picking Tokyo as the 2020 host, it's only fair to ask – what might the weather be in Brisbane 11 years from now?
While AccuWeather expert meteorologists are certainly skilled, producing an 11-year long-range forecast would be a silly assignment. Rather, climatological analysis based on historical averages can help paint a picture of what an average late July and early August might look like in 2032 for the Australian city.
The Right Honourable the Lord Mayor of Brisbane, Councillor Adrian Schrinner, Senator the Honourable Richard Colbeck, Minister for Senior Australians and Aged Care Services and Minister for Sport, John Coates AC, President, Australian Olympic Committee, three time Olympic gold medalist James Tomkins and The Honourable Annastacia Palaszczuk MP, Premier of Queensland and Minister for Trade, attend a press conference after Brisbane was announced as the 2032 Summer Olympics host city during the IOC Session at Hotel Okura in Tokyo, Wednesday, July 21, 2021. (Toru Hanai/Pool Photo via AP)
Compared to the worries of this year's Olympics, that picture looks far rosier.
"Overall, the weather tends to be pretty benign during late July and early August," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said of Brisbane.
Normal high temperatures in late July and early August are around 70 degrees Fahrenheit (21 degrees Celsius) and normal lows are around 49 F (9 C).
Any risk for extreme heat, the main weather cause of concern that has been attached to these current Tokyo Olympics, tends to increase later in August, long after Olympics athletes will return to their home countries.
"[The air] can warm into the lower or middle 80s on a rare occasion, Nicholls added. "Humidity also tends to run low during the period with relative humidity averaging about 40-50 percent."
For the plethora of outdoor sporting events, those conditions might be as perfect as they could get.
However, Nicholls – who has been predicting international weather for decades – did say that recent "wild" trends for the island continent suggest that a few curveballs could certainly throw off those averages.
"There has been wild weather in recent memory with the extreme drought and wildfires back in 2019," he said. "That was mostly a result of the record strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)."
In this photo provided by Department of Fire and Emergency Services, a firefighter attends to a fire near Wooroloo, northeast of Perth, Australia, Tuesday, Feb. 2, 2021. An out-of-control wildfire burning northeast of the Australian west coast city of Perth has destroyed dozens of homes and was threatening more. (Evan Collis/DFES via AP)
A positive IOD is characterized by above-normal water temperatures off eastern Africa and below-normal water temperatures off Indonesia and northwestern Australia, he explained. The phase usually results in drier-than-normal weather for the area. A negative IOD, which is what the region is experiencing this year, results in warm waters off Indonesia and northwestern Australia, usually leading to conditions favorable for above-normal rainfall.
In addition to the IOD factor, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which influences the water temperatures across the equatorial Pacific, bears watching as well.
In Australia, El Niño tends to lead to droughts and heat, while a La Niña tends to favor rainfall. El Niño years feature cooler-than-normal waters in the western Pacific and warmer-than-normal waters off South America. A La Niña is the opposite, with warm waters in the west and cool waters off the coast of South America.
FILE - In this Friday, Aug. 5, 2016, file photo, a couple sit on a dock to look at the sails of the Sydney Opera House that are illuminated with the green and gold colors of the Australian Olympic team, as Australia pushes to host the 2032 Olympics. Brisbane will be offered as the 2032 Olympics host, IOC president Thomas Bach said Thursday June 10, 2021, for International Olympic Committee members to confirm in Tokyo next month. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft, File)
Since Australia is surrounded by water, the country's main climate drivers are tied to these changes in sea-surface temperatures.
"On another note, positive IOD events tend to occur slightly more frequently than negative IOD events, especially in recent years, so that may slightly favor a positive IOD in 2032," Nicholls said. "However, there is no way of knowing the state of the IOD or ENSO this far out."
Despite the impossibility of knowing what trends might hold true in 11 years, Nicholls did say a shift in recent decades could be telling.
"Since the '90s, water temperatures in the Indian Ocean have been largely running warmer than normal in many areas," he said. "Prior to the 1990s, more of the Indian Ocean had water temperatures near to below normal. I have noticed similar differences in the southwest Pacific in recent decades."
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These changes in water temperatures, he said, could be a result of climate change.
Such climate change would undoubtedly alter the picture of what might look like an average July in Australia come 11 years from now. One of the most affected weather aspects that could be complicated by that change would be in regard to tropical systems.
Based on current trends, however, Nicholls said that shouldn't be a worry.
"The tropical season is over by late July and early August, so that should not be a concern. The biggest severe threats would tend to be drought and maybe wildfires or flash flooding," he said. "However, July and August is normally the driest time of year with July normally the coolest month."
FILE - In this Oct. 1, 2000, file photo, the closing ceremony fireworks for the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games erupt over the Sydney Harbor Bridge and Opera House in Australia. An Australian push to host the 2032 Olympics was elevated overnight to the status of preferred bid, and the people of Brisbane and southeast Queensland state woke up to the news Thursday, Feb. 25, 2021. (AP Photo/Steve Holland, File)
While fans in North America, Europe and much of Asia celebrate the recurring Summer Olympics during the warmest season of their years, it can be hard to remember that the opposite is true for residents in the neighboring Southern Hemisphere.
"One thing to remember is that Brisbane will actually be in their winter while hosting the Summer Olympics," Nicholls said.
The 2032 Olympics will be just the fourth time that a country in the Southern Hemisphere will host the Summer Olympics, with Australia having been host to the first two such occasions in 1956 and 2000. Most recently, the 2016 Games were held in Rio de Janeiro amid Brazil's winter season.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
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News / Sports
An 11-year forecast? What the weather might be for the 2032 Olympics
By Mark Puleo, AccuWeather staff writer
Updated Jul 23, 2021 3:43 PM EDT
The Honourable Annastacia Palaszczuk MP, Premier of Queensland and Minister for Trade, holds the queue card after Brisbane was announced as the 2032 Summer Olympics host city during the IOC Session at Hotel Okura in Tokyo, Wednesday, July 21, 2021. (Toru Hanai/Pool Photo via AP)
As the Tokyo Olympics finally get underway this week, the gears of another Olympics have already begun turning a decade-plus in advance.
The International Olympic Committee (IOC) announced on Wednesday the host site for the 2032 Summer Olympics: Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
While that might sound too far into the future to care about, millions of aspiring athletes will be watching this current Olympics and dreamily setting their sights on the Games three rotations from now.
With the intense summer heat being one of the more scrutinized elements of picking Tokyo as the 2020 host, it's only fair to ask – what might the weather be in Brisbane 11 years from now?
Climatological analysis
While AccuWeather expert meteorologists are certainly skilled, producing an 11-year long-range forecast would be a silly assignment. Rather, climatological analysis based on historical averages can help paint a picture of what an average late July and early August might look like in 2032 for the Australian city.
The Right Honourable the Lord Mayor of Brisbane, Councillor Adrian Schrinner, Senator the Honourable Richard Colbeck, Minister for Senior Australians and Aged Care Services and Minister for Sport, John Coates AC, President, Australian Olympic Committee, three time Olympic gold medalist James Tomkins and The Honourable Annastacia Palaszczuk MP, Premier of Queensland and Minister for Trade, attend a press conference after Brisbane was announced as the 2032 Summer Olympics host city during the IOC Session at Hotel Okura in Tokyo, Wednesday, July 21, 2021. (Toru Hanai/Pool Photo via AP)
Compared to the worries of this year's Olympics, that picture looks far rosier.
"Overall, the weather tends to be pretty benign during late July and early August," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said of Brisbane.
Normal high temperatures in late July and early August are around 70 degrees Fahrenheit (21 degrees Celsius) and normal lows are around 49 F (9 C).
Any risk for extreme heat, the main weather cause of concern that has been attached to these current Tokyo Olympics, tends to increase later in August, long after Olympics athletes will return to their home countries.
"[The air] can warm into the lower or middle 80s on a rare occasion, Nicholls added. "Humidity also tends to run low during the period with relative humidity averaging about 40-50 percent."
For the plethora of outdoor sporting events, those conditions might be as perfect as they could get.
However, Nicholls – who has been predicting international weather for decades – did say that recent "wild" trends for the island continent suggest that a few curveballs could certainly throw off those averages.
"There has been wild weather in recent memory with the extreme drought and wildfires back in 2019," he said. "That was mostly a result of the record strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)."
In this photo provided by Department of Fire and Emergency Services, a firefighter attends to a fire near Wooroloo, northeast of Perth, Australia, Tuesday, Feb. 2, 2021. An out-of-control wildfire burning northeast of the Australian west coast city of Perth has destroyed dozens of homes and was threatening more. (Evan Collis/DFES via AP)
A positive IOD is characterized by above-normal water temperatures off eastern Africa and below-normal water temperatures off Indonesia and northwestern Australia, he explained. The phase usually results in drier-than-normal weather for the area. A negative IOD, which is what the region is experiencing this year, results in warm waters off Indonesia and northwestern Australia, usually leading to conditions favorable for above-normal rainfall.
In addition to the IOD factor, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which influences the water temperatures across the equatorial Pacific, bears watching as well.
In Australia, El Niño tends to lead to droughts and heat, while a La Niña tends to favor rainfall. El Niño years feature cooler-than-normal waters in the western Pacific and warmer-than-normal waters off South America. A La Niña is the opposite, with warm waters in the west and cool waters off the coast of South America.
FILE - In this Friday, Aug. 5, 2016, file photo, a couple sit on a dock to look at the sails of the Sydney Opera House that are illuminated with the green and gold colors of the Australian Olympic team, as Australia pushes to host the 2032 Olympics. Brisbane will be offered as the 2032 Olympics host, IOC president Thomas Bach said Thursday June 10, 2021, for International Olympic Committee members to confirm in Tokyo next month. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft, File)
Since Australia is surrounded by water, the country's main climate drivers are tied to these changes in sea-surface temperatures.
"On another note, positive IOD events tend to occur slightly more frequently than negative IOD events, especially in recent years, so that may slightly favor a positive IOD in 2032," Nicholls said. "However, there is no way of knowing the state of the IOD or ENSO this far out."
Tropical impacts and climate change
Despite the impossibility of knowing what trends might hold true in 11 years, Nicholls did say a shift in recent decades could be telling.
"Since the '90s, water temperatures in the Indian Ocean have been largely running warmer than normal in many areas," he said. "Prior to the 1990s, more of the Indian Ocean had water temperatures near to below normal. I have noticed similar differences in the southwest Pacific in recent decades."
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
These changes in water temperatures, he said, could be a result of climate change.
Such climate change would undoubtedly alter the picture of what might look like an average July in Australia come 11 years from now. One of the most affected weather aspects that could be complicated by that change would be in regard to tropical systems.
Based on current trends, however, Nicholls said that shouldn't be a worry.
"The tropical season is over by late July and early August, so that should not be a concern. The biggest severe threats would tend to be drought and maybe wildfires or flash flooding," he said. "However, July and August is normally the driest time of year with July normally the coolest month."
FILE - In this Oct. 1, 2000, file photo, the closing ceremony fireworks for the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games erupt over the Sydney Harbor Bridge and Opera House in Australia. An Australian push to host the 2032 Olympics was elevated overnight to the status of preferred bid, and the people of Brisbane and southeast Queensland state woke up to the news Thursday, Feb. 25, 2021. (AP Photo/Steve Holland, File)
Summer Olympics in the winter?
While fans in North America, Europe and much of Asia celebrate the recurring Summer Olympics during the warmest season of their years, it can be hard to remember that the opposite is true for residents in the neighboring Southern Hemisphere.
"One thing to remember is that Brisbane will actually be in their winter while hosting the Summer Olympics," Nicholls said.
The 2032 Olympics will be just the fourth time that a country in the Southern Hemisphere will host the Summer Olympics, with Australia having been host to the first two such occasions in 1956 and 2000. Most recently, the 2016 Games were held in Rio de Janeiro amid Brazil's winter season.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo