A SpaceX rocket likely crashed into the moon on Wednesday: What we know
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket was expected to crash into the moon early Wednesday creating a 62-mile-high plume of lunar dust.
On April 6, Artemis II recorded Earth setting beyond the Moon’s horizon during a historic flyby, marking a record human spaceflight distance of 252,756 miles.
A discarded SpaceX rocket stage was expected to crash into the moon early Wednesday, potentially creating a towering plume of lunar dust that could be visible through telescopes.
The upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket was expected to strike near Einstein Crater at approximately 2:34 a.m. EDT on Aug. 5, but NASA has yet to confirm the crash.
Traveling about 5,400 mph, the nearly 9,000-pound rocket stage was set to collide with the sunlit eastern edge of the moon as viewed from Earth, according to an international study.
Scientists expected the collision to vaporize the rocket stage, produce a brief flash and excavate a crater measuring roughly 65 to 100 feet across and about 16 feet deep. The new crater will be too small to see from Earth, but the cloud of dust and debris rising above it could have been observable for several minutes.
NASA and SpaceX said the impact posed no danger to Earth and NASA scientists planned "to collect lunar data from the event and refine techniques for tracking objects in space."
A study submitted to Geophysical Research Letters estimates that the main curtain of ejected material could rise 9 to 12 miles above the lunar surface. A narrow central spike could climb 47 to 62 miles, or 75 to 100 kilometers, while the plume spreads more than 110 miles across.
Computer simulations suggest sunlight reflecting off the dust could make the plume several orders of magnitude brighter than the surrounding dark sky during the first few minutes after impact. However, researchers cautioned that its actual brightness remains uncertain.
In this view of the Moon, the near side, is visible at the top half of the Moon disk. It is identifiable by the dark splotches. The large crater that appears below the lava flows, dark in the center, is Orientale basin, a nearly 600-mile-wide crater that straddles the Moon’s near and far sides as is partly visible from Earth on the edge of the Moon. In this image, we have a full view of the crater. Everything below the crater is the far side, the hemisphere we don’t get to see from Earth because the Moon rotates on its axis at the same rate that it orbits round us. (Image: NASA)
What could we see from Earth?
The impact flash itself was expected to be less than one second and occurring against the illuminated portion of the moon, making it much harder to detect. Researchers said a telescope and high-speed camera would offer the best chance of recording it. It was not expected to be visible to the naked eye.
NASA has yet to confirm the collision as of Wednesday morning.
The rocket launched from Florida in January 2025, carrying Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost Mission 1 lander and ispace’s RESILIENCE lander, also known as HAKUTO-R Mission 2. Blue Ghost successfully landed on March 2, while RESILIENCE crashed during its landing attempt. The spent Falcon 9 stage was left in a high Earth orbit that crossed the moon’s path.
The shadow of Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost lander on the near side of the moon in March 2025. (Image credit: Firefly Aerospace)
The impact could excavate more than 1 million kilograms, or approximately 2.5 million pounds, of lunar material. Some fragments may travel hundreds of miles before falling back to the surface, helping researchers better understand how artificial objects create craters and spread hazardous debris across the moon.
"Although unplanned in this instance, disposing of upper stages on the lunar surface is a technically accepted and safe method and, in some cases, can be the only practical option for missions in low lunar orbit. Many operators choose controlled impacts because they provide predictable and trackable end of life outcomes," NASA wrote in a blog post.
NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter was expected to photograph the area before and after the collision. Ground observatories on Earth also attempted to record the flash, plume and chemical signatures in the ejected material.
“This event provides an opportunity to test a pipeline for localising impacts on the lunar surface for future seismic experiments, investigating the dust and plume dynamics from impact events on the moon, and considering hazards from artificial space debris impacts,” Benjamin Fernando, of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and his co-authors wrote.
The observations could help scientists better understand lunar impact physics and the dangers posed by space debris as countries and private companies send more robots—and eventually astronauts—to the moon.
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