Will the Atlantic basin soon awaken from its slumber?
By
Renee Duff, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Aug 9, 2021 3:11 AM EDT
This image, captured on Sunday, Aug. 8, 2021, shows several areas of moisture and clouds (white) gathering from the central Atlantic to the coast of Africa (right). (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East)
CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East
The lengthy calm in the Atlantic Ocean may come to an end this week as AccuWeather meteorologists are keeping a close watch on a pair of tropical features sweeping through the basin. Even if a tropical depression or named storm fails to form, forecasters say the Lesser Antilles and other parts of the Caribbean can feel some effects from these features.
"Since Hurricane Elsa’s dissipation on July 9, it has been calm in the Atlantic basin due to the dominating presence of dry air, dust particles and strong wind shear, which all inhibit growth of tropical systems," AccuWeather Meteorology Intern Marshall Smith said.
Although the Atlantic typically enters a lull in tropical activity during July and into the start of August, the basin achieved a feat that hadn't occurred since 2009. That was the last year a storm was not named between July 10 and Aug. 3, according to Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University meteorologist.
"The current pause in activity in the Atlantic since July is a sharp contrast to the month of June, which featured three named tropical systems and tied the record for the most active June," Smith said.
AccuWeather's team of tropical experts are monitoring a couple features, known as tropical waves, that emerged off the coast of Africa last week. The showers and thunderstorms associated with these waves can organize into a tropical depression or the next named storm under the right conditions.
These two waves were located well to the east of the Lesser Antilles as of Monday morning.
Forecasters say some of the conditions supportive for tropical development will be in play this week, while others will not.
"Water temperatures are largely supportive for development," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. Water temperatures of around 80 F or higher are needed for tropical storms to form and strengthen.
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The water being sufficiently warm is not enough for a tropical system to form, however. Dry air, dust and wind shear can deter and prevent tropical development in many cases. These factors have been prevalent across the basin since Elsa's demise.
Pockets of dry air across the eastern and central Atlantic may continue to inhibit the development of the tropical waves crossing the basin in the short term, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.
However, the dry air may become less extensive and wind shear could ease up toward the middle of the week, promoting a more conducive environment for development.
This graphic depicts how tropical activity typically ramps up as August progresses.
Pydynowski is currently giving both tropical waves a medium chance of development through the middle of the week.
Any development will take place gradually due to the current inhibiting factors in the atmosphere, according to Pydynowski.
"If any of these features can somehow navigate through these obstacles and reach tropical storm status, the next storm would be named Fred," Smith said. After Fred, the next name on the list is Grace.
Regardless of development, the Lesser Antilles and northern Caribbean can expect an enhancement of gusty showers and downpours during the early and middle part of the week as these waves pass through the islands or nearby. Seas may also be rougher than normal for an extended period of time.
By the latter portion of the week and next weekend, tropical downpours could reach part of the Bahamas and Florida.
Even with the recent lull in activity, AccuWeather's team of hurricane experts is projecting an above-average season with 16-20 named storms and a total of seven to 10 of those reaching hurricane status. Five to seven direct impacts on the U.S. are forecast.
As the statistical peak of hurricane season nears, AccuWeather meteorologists urge people in hurricane-prone areas to continue to check back for updates.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
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News / Hurricane
Will the Atlantic basin soon awaken from its slumber?
By Renee Duff, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Aug 9, 2021 3:11 AM EDT
This image, captured on Sunday, Aug. 8, 2021, shows several areas of moisture and clouds (white) gathering from the central Atlantic to the coast of Africa (right). (CIRA at Colorado State/GOES-East)
The lengthy calm in the Atlantic Ocean may come to an end this week as AccuWeather meteorologists are keeping a close watch on a pair of tropical features sweeping through the basin. Even if a tropical depression or named storm fails to form, forecasters say the Lesser Antilles and other parts of the Caribbean can feel some effects from these features.
"Since Hurricane Elsa’s dissipation on July 9, it has been calm in the Atlantic basin due to the dominating presence of dry air, dust particles and strong wind shear, which all inhibit growth of tropical systems," AccuWeather Meteorology Intern Marshall Smith said.
Although the Atlantic typically enters a lull in tropical activity during July and into the start of August, the basin achieved a feat that hadn't occurred since 2009. That was the last year a storm was not named between July 10 and Aug. 3, according to Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University meteorologist.
"The current pause in activity in the Atlantic since July is a sharp contrast to the month of June, which featured three named tropical systems and tied the record for the most active June," Smith said.
AccuWeather's team of tropical experts are monitoring a couple features, known as tropical waves, that emerged off the coast of Africa last week. The showers and thunderstorms associated with these waves can organize into a tropical depression or the next named storm under the right conditions.
These two waves were located well to the east of the Lesser Antilles as of Monday morning.
Forecasters say some of the conditions supportive for tropical development will be in play this week, while others will not.
"Water temperatures are largely supportive for development," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. Water temperatures of around 80 F or higher are needed for tropical storms to form and strengthen.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
The water being sufficiently warm is not enough for a tropical system to form, however. Dry air, dust and wind shear can deter and prevent tropical development in many cases. These factors have been prevalent across the basin since Elsa's demise.
Pockets of dry air across the eastern and central Atlantic may continue to inhibit the development of the tropical waves crossing the basin in the short term, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.
However, the dry air may become less extensive and wind shear could ease up toward the middle of the week, promoting a more conducive environment for development.
This graphic depicts how tropical activity typically ramps up as August progresses.
Pydynowski is currently giving both tropical waves a medium chance of development through the middle of the week.
Any development will take place gradually due to the current inhibiting factors in the atmosphere, according to Pydynowski.
"If any of these features can somehow navigate through these obstacles and reach tropical storm status, the next storm would be named Fred," Smith said. After Fred, the next name on the list is Grace.
Regardless of development, the Lesser Antilles and northern Caribbean can expect an enhancement of gusty showers and downpours during the early and middle part of the week as these waves pass through the islands or nearby. Seas may also be rougher than normal for an extended period of time.
By the latter portion of the week and next weekend, tropical downpours could reach part of the Bahamas and Florida.
Even with the recent lull in activity, AccuWeather's team of hurricane experts is projecting an above-average season with 16-20 named storms and a total of seven to 10 of those reaching hurricane status. Five to seven direct impacts on the U.S. are forecast.
As the statistical peak of hurricane season nears, AccuWeather meteorologists urge people in hurricane-prone areas to continue to check back for updates.
IN OTHER NEWS:
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo