Tropical downpours drench Carolinas; eyes on Caribbean for development
AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking tropical downpours in the Carolinas and an area of stormy weather that can develop in the western Caribbean before mid-June. At least one will directly affect the United States.
With hurricane season here, AccuWeather’s Bernie Rayno takes a look at the tropics.
While a disorganized mass of drenching showers and thunderstorms near the southeastern United States will bring drenching showers and thunderstorms to the Carolinas this week, a tropical threat could emerge in the Caribbean prior to the middle of the month.
"These are the areas that we would typically look for tropical development during the month of June, so it's not uncommon to see that," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
This image of the Gulf, Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic was captured on Wednesday, June 4, 2025. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
Downpours along the southern US Atlantic coast this week
An area strewn with showers and thunderstorms stretching from the Bahamas to South Florida and Cuba will slowly drift north-northeastward through Thursday night, drenching Florida, southern Georgia, and the Carolinas.
The downpours can be beneficial for drought-stricken areas, but too much rain may fall too fast and lead to flash urban flooding. Cities such as Jacksonville, Florida; Charleston, South Carolina; and Wilmington, North Carolina; should be prepared for flooding.
Up to a few inches of rain can fall in as many hours on some communities.
Not only is urban flooding a concern, but building seas and local onshore winds from the budding low pressure area can lead to dangerous rip currents, coastal flooding, and beach erosion from the Georgia coast to southeastern Virginia.
While tropical downpours can occur with this system, most of the storm's energy is over land, and thus tropical development is not anticipated.
Watching the western Caribbean next week
During the second week of June, a zone farther south—over the western and central Caribbean—needs to be watched closely.
A slow-spinning massive low pressure area known as a gyre may develop, which can then give birth to smaller but more intense areas of low pressure that can evolve into tropical storms and hurricanes.
"What's going to happen is that the Central American gyre is finally going to develop in the next week or so. When you see trade winds coming from the east, and then you actually see some winds coming from the west down here, that kind of turns a big area of low pressure down here," DaSilva said.
The waters are plenty warm in the Caribbean to foster and sustain tropical development.
"The timing we are looking at for possible tropical development in the central and western Caribbean is June 12-16 or perhaps a bit later," DaSilva said.
"Should a tropical depression or storm take shape next week, it may be more likely to track into the Gulf and then perhaps swing towards Louisiana or Florida," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said, "Should it wait till later next week or perhaps hold off until nearly the middle of the month, steering breezes would be more likely to take it into southern Mexico or Central America."
It appears that the latter option, with movement toward Mexico or Central America, appears more likely at this junction, say AccuWeather hurricane experts.
AccuWeather meteorologists are expecting a busy hurricane season, especially early on and perhaps the latter part with a lull in the middle.
Between three to six direct impacts on the U.S. are anticipated.
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