Fred to threaten flooding, tornadoes throughout much of East

Fred may have lost wind intensity while pushing inland over the southeastern United States, but it was still wreaking havoc as it headed north. AccuWeather forecasters say the system, regardless of status, will continue to unleash torrential rainfall and the threat for tornadoes.

There will be two main threats to lives and property stemming from Fred into Thursday. The more widespread risk will be the potential for flooding. A more isolated threat will result from severe thunderstorms that can spawn tornadoes.

Roughly 20 tornado reports were received by the National Weather Service on Tuesday in Georgia and the Carolinas.

Fred was over northern Georgia and southeastern North Carolina on Tuesday afternoon, moving north-northeastward. AccuWeather forecasters expect it to take a curved path to the northeast over the Appalachians into Thursday. Fred has lost its tropical storm designation and is now a tropical depression. The next step for Fred will be to slip to tropical rainstorm status.

"By the middle or end of the week, Fred's circulation may dissipate enough to make it difficult to track exactly where the center of the tropical rainstorm is. Nonetheless, the tropical moisture will remain," explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.

Southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle were only the first targets of Fred's torrential downpours. The Panama City, Florida, area received between 6 and 10 inches of rain from Fred. Portions of southeastern Alabama picked up between 3 and 5 inches of rain in several hours from Monday to Monday night.

Even though Fred is expected to continue moving swiftly, just a few hours of heavy tropical rainfall could trigger flash flooding in many communities. Flash flood watches were plastered across much of the East, stretching from Georgia to New York state on Tuesday.

In North Carolina, a flash flood emergency was issued for an area around Canton, roughly 18 miles from Asheville, as heavy rainfall fueled raging rivers and inundated streets.

A general 1-4 inches of rain is forecast to fall in a swath from eastern Alabama and northern and western Georgia to northern Pennsylvania and part of upstate New York through Thursday night. Most of the rain will fall in the Southern states into Wednesday evening, while the bulk of the rain associated with Fred will fall in the Northeast from later Tuesday night to Thursday night.

The 1-4 inches of rain is not a major concern, except where most of it falls in several hours. Some locations have the potential to receive more than two times that amount of rain in a single calendar day.

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"An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches can fall," Douty said. That sort of rainfall is most likely to occur in the mountains and foothills of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee, as well as northern Georgia and southwestern Virginia. In these hilly and mountainous areas, there is a heightened risk of flash flooding, mudslides and rock slides, regardless of the state of soil conditions prior to Fred's arrival.

In the Northeast, local rainfall amount may reach 6 inches over the central Appalachians.

In both of these zones, a firehose effect can set up for several hours where bands of moisture from both the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean converge.

Rapid rises can occur along small streams, underpasses and in poor drainage areas that can strand motorists. Drivers who travel through secondary roads in the mountains should be on the lookout for debris and mud that may block their path.

Well in advance of rain directly associated with Fred, close to 6 inches of rain fell on portions of western North Carolina Monday morning. Rapid runoff contributed to a sharp rise on the French Broad River at Rosman, North Carolina. Flooding was reported in the Lincolnton, North Carolina, area.

With the amount of rain anticipated, rises on area rivers that flow out of the Appalachians are likely. It is possible for some roads to be blocked by rising water.

One area that could use the rain is across West Virginia and Virginia, where abnormally dry and slight drought conditions were reported by the U.S. Drought Monitor last week. Steady rainfall in this area may help out the dry conditions in that region.

Even in the dry spots in the mountainous areas, so much rain can come down so quickly it could raise the risk of flash flooding, mudslides and rockslides.

People in the Southeastern states will need to keep an eye out for rapidly changing weather conditions as another significant risk from Fred into midweek will be the potential for severe weather.

Bands of thunderstorms, mainly on the eastern flank of the northward-moving storm, can become intense enough to continue unleashing localized strong wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

While the strongest wind gusts from Fred occurred within the first few hours surrounding landfall, locally damaging wind gusts continued to be a factor for parts of the Southeast well into Monday night.

As Fred turns toward the Northeast states Wednesday, the risk of severe weather will be significantly lower, but there can still be strong storms and perhaps a couple of isolated tornadoes in portions of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania and New Jersey Wednesday and Wednesday evening.

Well behind Fred is Grace. This tropical storm brought heavy rain to Hispaniola Monday, passed over Jamaica Tuesday night prior and is forecast to hit Mexico twice before the end of the weekend. Grace could hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and then the northeastern Mexico mainland as a hurricane.

A third system joined the fray in the Atlantic early this week. Tropical Storm Henri formed late Monday afternoon, according to the NHC, and it is forecast to take a circular path around but directly avoiding the islands of Bermuda this week.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.

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