Florida remains watchful amid brewing tropical activity
Florida has some protection from two upcoming tropical threats, but there is a chance that protection could waver as the month progresses.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva tracks new threats of tropical development brewing in the Caribbean and the Atlantic as of Oct. 15, as well as the regions at risk of these storms.
Despite an influx of cooler and less humid air across the southeastern United States, Florida remains at risk for tropical threats as AccuWeather meteorologists continue to monitor multiple potential developments.
Approximately six weeks remain in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, and the tropics continue to remain active.
This image of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean shows a blossoming area of showers and thunderstorms in the western Caribbean (left of center) and a swirl of clouds and showers from the tropical rainstorm (right of center). Image captured on Tuesday afternoon, Oct. 15, 2024. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
AccuWeather meteorologists have called out two main areas that are most likely to spur tropical development in the next few days to a week or so, and one feature could still find a way to impact Florida.
Western Caribbean feature to push into Central America
An area of showers and thunderstorms continues to grow over Central America in response to a gyre, a large and slowly rotating area of low pressure. This very weak storm could spur development in the western Caribbean or the eastern Pacific in the coming days.
"Based on the latest information we have and studying the situation, the most likely path the brewing feature in the western Caribbean would take would be a more southern one into Central America this weekend," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
"The northward path of this feature is currently blocked and should stay blocked," DaSilva added.
Some of the same energy from the Caribbean system may survive into the eastern Pacific.
The same gyre could spur new development in the eastern Pacific, which then could become a threat for areas farther to the north along the coast of Mexico next week.
Tropical Rainstorm approaching the Leewards
The western Caribbean zone is not the only area that could give birth to a tropical storm.
"We have been tracking a wave of low pressure (tropical wave) that moved off the coast of Africa earlier this month," DaSilva said, "This feature has been showing some signs of life off and on in recent days but could be entering a much more favorable area for tropical development this week as it nears the Leeward Islands in the northeastern Caribbean."
Between Friday and Sunday, the Atlantic feature will have conditions conducive to further organization, including low wind shear and warm water. Because of the growing threat, AccuWeather meteorologists have begun referring to the feature as a tropical rainstorm to raise public awareness of the situation.
"It is possible for the feature to ramp up quickly to a tropical depression or tropical storm as its core approaches or passes near the Leewards late this week," DaSilva said, "But, as this system travels farther to the west, whatever it becomes, could run into more hostile conditions for strengthening and organization."
Like the conditions with the western Caribbean system, a path into Florida also appears to be blocked, but that could change over time depending on the position and strength of other weather features.
Natural deterrents for Florida, southeastern US?
There are two factors that could suppress any tropical feature that may develop and track toward Florida.
The first is the larger islands of the northern Caribbean, such as Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The tall mountains could rip away at any system that tracks overhead. The other factor is a complex weather pattern, including the jet stream setup over the southern Atlantic Ocean, the eastern Gulf coast of the U.S. and over the Bahamas.
A storm at the jet stream level of the atmosphere, along with a large area of high pressure over the Southeast could steer away any tropical system. However, if the jet stream or high pressure weakens, it could allow a tropical feature to venture close to Florida.
Because of the upcoming threats from torrential downpours and gusty thunderstorms, at the very least, interests in Central America, southern Mexico, and the northern islands of the Caribbean should closely monitor the tropics this week as there is the potential for a direct hit from a formidable tropical cyclone.
Any impacts to Florida would probably not be until early next week at the earliest.
The next two names on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are Nadine and Oscar.
Florida: Tropical protection at a price
The same features working to possibly protect Florida from a direct hit by a major tropical system in the next week or so will lead to stiff winds from the east and northeast that will raise seas, create dangerous surf and lead to beach erosion and coastal flooding along the southern Atlantic coast of the U.S.
Cities vulnerable to tide levels above astronomical levels, such as Miami, are likely to experience street flooding during the extended pattern that may last a week or more.
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