September 2026 Nor’easter: AccuWeather’s Forecast was More Accurate, Provided More Advance Notice
Significant September Nor’easter: Coastal Flooding and Beach Erosion Forecast Days in Advance
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This is the view from inside one business in the heart of Stone Harbor, New Jersey, as floodwaters filled the streets.
A slow-moving nor’easter brought days of damaging impacts to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, including heavy rainfall, strong winds, coastal flooding, beach erosion and power outages. AccuWeather’s nor’easter forecast provided more advance notice, more accurate forecasts and better descriptions of the storm’s impacts than all other known sources, identifying the potential for significant rain, wind and coastal flooding a week in advance and accurately forecasting the areas at greatest risk.
AccuWeather first discussed storm scenarios on Saturday, Sept. 19, identifying the potential for significant rain and wind along with coastal flooding. On Sunday, Sept. 20, AccuWeather issued its first Storm Potential Outlook (SPO) for AccuWeather For Business customers, highlighting the flooding threat. AccuWeather.com stories also covered the risk of the storm a week in advance.
By Monday, Sept. 21, five days in advance, AccuWeather was favoring a storm track closer to the coast with significant impacts and clearly forecasting coastal flooding from the mid-Atlantic through New England. AccuWeather began referring to the storm across its products and communications as a “Significant September Nor’easter,” warning of “extensive coastal flooding and beach erosion.”
AccuWeather’s first Latest Extreme Weather Forecast on Sept. 21 accurately predicted the unusual duration of the storm:
“The storm could then slow down significantly as it sits near or just offshore of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts late this week and over the upcoming weekend, bringing a prolonged duration of rain, wind and coastal hazards. The storm could nearly stall along the coast, posing a risk of impactful weather continuing into early next week.”
AccuWeather also stated that confidence was high that the immediate Atlantic coast and inland bays and tidal rivers would experience “extensive coastal erosion, tidal flooding and significant impacts to maritime operations.” A day later, on Tuesday, Sept. 22, AccuWeather was the only known source to further escalate this language, stating, “This storm may be remembered for its destructive coastal flooding and severe beach erosion.”
In addition to accurately forecasting widespread coastal flooding, AccuWeather was the only known source to issue a storm surge map, which better described the risk for high water in and near coastal areas.
On Tuesday, Sept. 22 at 6 p.m. ET, four days ahead of NWS flood watches, AccuWeather issued Severe Weather Potential: Flooding alerts, correctly identifying the flooding threat across Long Island and southeastern New England. Forecasts for southeastern Massachusetts specifically warned that “rain and wind can lead to flooding and power outages.”
AccuWeather also more accurately predicted the magnitude of the storm’s rainfall. In southeastern Massachusetts, AccuWeather forecast up to 8 inches of rain while the National Weather Service (NWS) Boston forecast only 4-6 inches. Numerous rainfall totals of 6-8 inches were ultimately reported. Along coastal New Jersey, AccuWeather forecast up to 6 inches as early as Sept. 25 while NWS Mount Holly forecast 3-4 inches. Observed totals reached 5-7 inches.
An aerial view of Highway 12 between Basnight Bridge and Rodanthe, North Carolina, after a coastal storm washed away chunks of the highway. (Image: NC DOT)
A slow-moving nor’easter brought days of damaging impacts to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, including heavy rainfall, strong winds, coastal flooding, beach erosion and power outages. AccuWeather’s nor’easter forecast provided more advance notice, more accurate forecasts and better descriptions of the storm’s impacts than all other known sources, identifying the potential for significant rain, wind and coastal flooding a week in advance and accurately forecasting the areas at greatest risk.
AccuWeather first discussed storm scenarios on Saturday, Sept. 19, identifying the potential for significant rain and wind along with coastal flooding. On Sunday, Sept. 20, AccuWeather issued its first Storm Potential Outlook (SPO) for AccuWeather For Business customers, highlighting the flooding threat. AccuWeather.com stories also covered the risk of the storm a week in advance.
By Monday, Sept. 21, five days in advance, AccuWeather was favoring a storm track closer to the coast with significant impacts and clearly forecasting coastal flooding from the mid-Atlantic through New England. AccuWeather began referring to the storm across its products and communications as a “Significant September Nor’easter,” warning of “extensive coastal flooding and beach erosion.”
AccuWeather’s first Latest Extreme Weather Forecast on Sept. 21 accurately predicted the unusual duration of the storm:
“The storm could then slow down significantly as it sits near or just offshore of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts late this week and over the upcoming weekend, bringing a prolonged duration of rain, wind and coastal hazards. The storm could nearly stall along the coast, posing a risk of impactful weather continuing into early next week.”
AccuWeather also stated that confidence was high that the immediate Atlantic coast and inland bays and tidal rivers would experience “extensive coastal erosion, tidal flooding and significant impacts to maritime operations.” A day later, on Tuesday, Sept. 22, AccuWeather was the only known source to further escalate this language, stating, “This storm may be remembered for its destructive coastal flooding and severe beach erosion.”
In addition to accurately forecasting widespread coastal flooding, AccuWeather was the only known source to issue a storm surge map, which better described the risk for high water in and near coastal areas.
On Tuesday, Sept. 22 at 6 p.m. ET, four days ahead of NWS flood watches, AccuWeather issued Severe Weather Potential: Flooding alerts, correctly identifying the flooding threat across Long Island and southeastern New England. Forecasts for southeastern Massachusetts specifically warned that “rain and wind can lead to flooding and power outages.”
AccuWeather also more accurately predicted the magnitude of the storm’s rainfall. In southeastern Massachusetts, AccuWeather forecast up to 8 inches of rain while the National Weather Service (NWS) Boston forecast only 4-6 inches. Numerous rainfall totals of 6-8 inches were ultimately reported. Along coastal New Jersey, AccuWeather forecast up to 6 inches as early as Sept. 25 while NWS Mount Holly forecast 3-4 inches. Observed totals reached 5-7 inches.
A family carries their belongings through the water of a flooded road during a nor'easter storm on September 26, 2026 in Point Pleasant, New Jersey, where a voluntary evacuation has been issued in the community. (Photo by Ryan Murphy/Getty Images).
AccuWeather provided significantly more advance notice and more accurate forecasts of the damaging wind threat:
-- The initial Storm Potential Notice issued to AccuWeather For Business customers on Sept. 22 accurately forecast wind gusts of 60 mph from the Jersey Shore through southeastern New England and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 80 mph. The highest observed wind gust on land was 74 mph.
-- AccuWeather’s exclusive AssetReport™ enabled business customers to automatically identify specific assets at risk and important location-specific details such as how much rain, wind and storm surge were expected at each asset. Additionally, these hazard areas can be displayed on interactive maps within the AccuWeather For Business Portal, enabling quick identification of impacted locations and supply chain and business continuity concerns.
-- This forecast provided one day of additional advance notice compared to NWS High Wind Watches in New England and four days of additional advance notice in parts of Long Island and New Jersey compared to NWS High Wind Warnings.
-- For portions of Long Island, AccuWeather issued a Severe Weather Threat: High Winds at 6 p.m. ET Friday, Sept. 25, forecasting gusts of 60-65 mph. The NWS did not issue a High Wind Warning for gusts up to 65 mph until 2 p.m. Saturday while the storm was well underway, providing substantially less advance notice.
As one of many such examples, AccuWeather also provided clearer impact information for New York City.
On Wednesday, Sept. 23, AccuWeather’s forecast headline stated that a “Significant September Nor’easter will bring wind, some rain and coastal flooding over the weekend” and warned of ponding on streets and highways. At the same time, the NWS forecast simply called for a 50% chance of showers and breezy conditions Saturday, Saturday night and Sunday with no mention of coastal flooding.
On Sept. 22, forecasts for Sept. 26 from other sources, such as Tomorrow.io and Apple Weather, lacked the detail provided by AccuWeather, offering only information such as “mainly cloudy, rainy in the afternoon” and “40% chance of precipitation.” No information was provided on the coastal flooding risk.
As confidence increased, AccuWeather further emphasized that the hardest-hit locations faced the risk of property-threatening coastal flooding and significant beach erosion, accurately communicating the storm’s serious and prolonged nature well before its greatest impacts occurred.
Study after study has shown that AccuWeather provides more accurate and often earlier notifications and greater detail on significant and extreme weather events that affect businesses and threaten the health, welfare and lives of people. AccuWeather has proven to be the most trusted and most accurate source of weather forecasts and warnings.
This is another example of the more than 100 events every year in which AccuWeather forecasts with proven Superior Accuracy™ and clearer descriptions of weather impacts help people, communities and businesses better prepare and stay safer.
Two people on a boat look closely at a vehicle submerged in floodwaters in the parking lot along the Hudson River during a nor'easter storm in Edgewater, New Jersey, United States, on September 26, 2026. (Photo by Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
AccuWeather provided significantly more advance notice and more accurate forecasts of the damaging wind threat:
-- The initial Storm Potential Notice issued to AccuWeather For Business customers on Sept. 22 accurately forecast wind gusts of 60 mph from the Jersey Shore through southeastern New England and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 80 mph. The highest observed wind gust on land was 74 mph.
-- AccuWeather’s exclusive AssetReport™ enabled business customers to automatically identify specific assets at risk and important location-specific details such as how much rain, wind and storm surge were expected at each asset. Additionally, these hazard areas can be displayed on interactive maps within the AccuWeather For Business Portal, enabling quick identification of impacted locations and supply chain and business continuity concerns.
-- This forecast provided one day of additional advance notice compared to NWS High Wind Watches in New England and four days of additional advance notice in parts of Long Island and New Jersey compared to NWS High Wind Warnings.
-- For portions of Long Island, AccuWeather issued a Severe Weather Threat: High Winds at 6 p.m. ET Friday, Sept. 25, forecasting gusts of 60-65 mph. The NWS did not issue a High Wind Warning for gusts up to 65 mph until 2 p.m. Saturday while the storm was well underway, providing substantially less advance notice.
As one of many such examples, AccuWeather also provided clearer impact information for New York City.
On Wednesday, Sept. 23, AccuWeather’s forecast headline stated that a “Significant September Nor’easter will bring wind, some rain and coastal flooding over the weekend” and warned of ponding on streets and highways. At the same time, the NWS forecast simply called for a 50% chance of showers and breezy conditions Saturday, Saturday night and Sunday with no mention of coastal flooding.
On Sept. 22, forecasts for Sept. 26 from other sources, such as Tomorrow.io and Apple Weather, lacked the detail provided by AccuWeather, offering only information such as “mainly cloudy, rainy in the afternoon” and “40% chance of precipitation.” No information was provided on the coastal flooding risk.
As confidence increased, AccuWeather further emphasized that the hardest-hit locations faced the risk of property-threatening coastal flooding and significant beach erosion, accurately communicating the storm’s serious and prolonged nature well before its greatest impacts occurred.
Study after study has shown that AccuWeather provides more accurate and often earlier notifications and greater detail on significant and extreme weather events that affect businesses and threaten the health, welfare and lives of people. AccuWeather has proven to be the most trusted and most accurate source of weather forecasts and warnings.
This is another example of the more than 100 events every year in which AccuWeather forecasts with proven Superior Accuracy™ and clearer descriptions of weather impacts help people, communities and businesses better prepare and stay safer.
Why take unnecessary risks? Start using AccuWeather today.
AccuWeather's Hurricane Warning Service™
AccuWeather's Hurricane Warning ServiceTM often delivers the earliest and most accurate tropical storm and hurricane forecasts, giving businesses critical extra lead time to protect employees, assets, and operations. The service includes:
• Eye Path® Forecasts — Proprietary track and intensity forecasts are often issued ahead of the National Hurricane Center and all other known sources, often by many hours to a full day.
• AssetReport™ — Automated identification of at-risk assets with location-specific rain, wind, and storm surge details, viewable on interactive maps in the AccuWeather For Business Portal and mobile app.
• Direct Access to Hurricane Experts — Scheduled video briefings, on-demand phone consultations, and a dedicated secure chat room for round-the-clock questions during active storms.
• Proven Superior Accuracy™ — Independently verified track and intensity forecasts that consistently outperform the NHC, backed by more than 100 major events every year.
Why take unnecessary risks? Better protect your business before the next hurricane or tropical storm strikes. Contact AccuWeather For Business today and schedule a meeting to learn more about our Hurricane Warning Service™.
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