The Storm Before Christmas
A modest storm dropping southward along the West Coast now will track into the central and eastern United States before Christmas with mostly rain but also a swath of snow.
While cold air has been consistent in the West it has been inconsistent in the East and virtually non-existent in the Southeast. This cold air tendency will be a factor with the storm as it rolls from the Southwest to the Midwest and on to the Northeast.
The storm will put down snow over the mountains and spotty rain in the deserts across the Southwest this weekend, where it will reorganize. The ski resorts from southeastern Utah to south-central Colorado to Arizona and New Mexico may gather the most snow with the storm throughout its history.
The storm will emerge over northwestern Texas Monday. During this time, drenching rain will fall on part of the Lone Start State and the southern Plains. However, we should also begin to get a strip of snow developing near the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma.
Even though snow may fall within this stripe on the map, there's no guarantee it will lay around until Christmas morning everywhere.
During Tuesday and Wednesday, this storm will move along from the central and southern Plains to the Great Lakes. With this track and the general lack of cold air, a swath of rain will swing from the central Plains across the Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio valleys.
However, the storm is likely to carry along a pocket of marginally cold air with it on its western flank. It is in this zone of the storm where wet snow is likely to fall. Because of the marginal temperatures, we are probably not looking at a huge amount of snow, but perhaps more on the order of a few inches. And, some of that will melt as it falls.
Cities in the potential path of snow include: Dodge City, Kan.; Kansas City, Mo.; Chicago; South Bend, Ind.; Detroit; London, Ont.; and Montreal, P.Q.
Could some communities pick up more than a few inches of snow? Sure, but it will probably be an exception with this storm over the middle of the nation.
The latest indications are that this storm will split in two as it reaches the Northeast. The original storm will fade over the eastern Great Lakes area Wednesday, while a new center develops along the mid-Atlantic coast.
No matter how you cut it, it will be rain (and thunder) for the Southeast with this storm.
Meteorologist Meghan Evans has an in-depth look at travel for the week before Christmas.
While this setup has delivered formidable snowstorms in the past up north, it appears the atmosphere will generally be too warm in most places for that to happen in the Northeast.
However, there will be lingering cold air over northern upstate New York and northern New England to get some snow out of this feature Wednesday into Thursday.
In addition, if the coastal storm starts its engine fast enough it could draw cold air southward, causing snow at the last minute over the interior mid-Atlantic. By then, however, the storm will be ready to roll out into the Atlantic, so any changeover to snow will not have much time to accumulate.
Even with this scenario, odds are against it snowing of significance in the I-95 mid-Atlantic and southern New England.
As far as the eastern Christmas weekend storm goes, the jury is still out on that. Possibilities range from a storm passing out to sea to a fragmented system with snow showers from the Midwest into the Northeast to the remote chance of an East Coast storm.
A separate storm may affect part of the West with coastal rain showers and inland snow showers during the Christmas weekend.
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