East Pacific Development Expected Early Next Week

7/4/2015 8:21:11 AM

Tropical development is not expected through the next 24 hours. However we are closely monitoring two areas of disturbed weather one of which should become a tropical storm early in the upcoming week.

An area of low pressure around 1,200 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands has an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system will slowly drift west-northwest over the next several days, Recent computer forecasts show less support for development. However, this feature will remain in warm water with marginal shear and could develop into an organized tropical system within the next few days. The movement of this system would keep the feature south of Hawaii through early next week.

The second area that is being monitored is an area of showers and thunderstorms about 1,400 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico or near 06 North, 123 West. Satellite images during Saturday afternoon were suggesting the feature is becoming more symmetric with a thunderstorm area that has become more consistent. These are characteristics of an evolving tropical system. If this development continues this system could become a depression or even storm early this coming week. Long range computer forecasts take this system northwest and this system could impact parts of the Hawaiian Islands a week from today.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

2015 East Pacific Storms

Andres Blanca Carlos Dolores Enrique Felicia
Guillermo Hilda Ignacio Jimena Kevin Linda
Marty Nora Olaf Patricia Rick Sandra
Terry Vivian Waldo Xina York Zelda

East Pacific Basin Maps

National Hurricane Center Outlook

NHC E. Pacific Activity

315 
ABPZ20 KNHC 041751
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small low pressure area located about 1200 miles east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands is producing poorly organized shower and
thunderstorm activity.  While this low still has some potential for
development, upper-level winds are expected to prevent formation
after the weekend. The low is forecast to move slowly
west-northwestward for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about 1400 miles southwest of Cabo San
Lucas Mexico are showing some signs of organization.  Environmental
conditions are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake


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