Tropical development is not expected through the next 24 hours. However we are closely monitoring two areas of disturbed weather one of which should become a tropical storm early in the upcoming week.
An area of low pressure around 1,200 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands has an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system will slowly drift west-northwest over the next several days, Recent computer forecasts show less support for development. However, this feature will remain in warm water with marginal shear and could develop into an organized tropical system within the next few days. The movement of this system would keep the feature south of Hawaii through early next week.
The second area that is being monitored is an area of showers and thunderstorms about 1,400 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico or near 06 North, 123 West. Satellite images during Saturday afternoon were suggesting the feature is becoming more symmetric with a thunderstorm area that has become more consistent. These are characteristics of an evolving tropical system. If this development continues this system could become a depression or even storm early this coming week. Long range computer forecasts take this system northwest and this system could impact parts of the Hawaiian Islands a week from today.
By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski
315 ABPZ20 KNHC 041751 TWOEP TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A small low pressure area located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing poorly organized shower and thunderstorm activity. While this low still has some potential for development, upper-level winds are expected to prevent formation after the weekend. The low is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure centered about 1400 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico are showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent $$ Forecaster Blake