A low pressure system just northeast of Hispaniola may strengthen into the next tropical storm in the Atlantic basin. The low pressure system, responsible for sparking clusters of heavy rain and thunderstorms, will move west near the north shore of Hispaniola today before moving northwestward towards the Turks and Caicos tonight into tomorrow. A tropical depression or storm may develop at anytime on Thursday, but wind shear and interaction with land will continue to disrupt rapid development over the next 12-18 hours. Regardless of development, heavy rain will pose a significant threat to Hispaniola today. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides will be possible. While gusty winds will impact the region, the strongest winds will be over the open water, mainly in squalls north of the Great Antilles.
The environment will become much more favorable for strengthening late on Thursday into Friday as the wind shear diminishes and the system moves away from Hispaniola. A strengthening tropical storm may threaten the Bahamas on Friday and Saturday before threatening Florida, possibly as a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday into Monday. All interests across the northern Caribbean, Bahamas, Florida and the southeastern United States should pay close attention to the progress of this developing tropical system.
Elsewhere, Gaston has become a hurricane in the open waters of the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Gaston should encounter some stronger wind shear over the next 24-48 hours and some weakening is possible, perhaps weakening enough to be downgraded back to a tropical storm. There will be no direct impact to land through early next week. However, the tropical storm can bring increased swells, rough surf and dangerous rip currents to Bermuda this weekend.
By Evan Duffey, AccuWeather Meteorologist
779 ABNT20 KNHC 251154 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Gaston, located about 1200 miles east of the Leeward Island. An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is centered just southeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. The wave is producing gale-force winds over water to the north of Hispaniola, however, satellite images indicate that the shower and thunderstorm activity is well removed from the area of lowest pressure. Surface data also indicate that the low continues to lack a well-defined center. Although upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development during the next day or so, they are expected to become a little more favorable by the weekend, and this system could become a tropical depression during the next couple of days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the wave later this morning. Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely over Puerto Rico today, and strong winds and heavy rainfall are likely over portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas during the next couple of days. These rains could lead to flash floods and mudslides. Please consult products issued by your local meteorological offices and High Seas Forecasts from the National Weather Service for further details. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance since it is increasing likely that some impacts, at a minimum heavy rains and gusty winds, will occur beginning this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Brown/Brennan