AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring a tropical disturbance that may develop in the eastern or central Pacific and could eventually approach Hawaii later this week. The tropical threat comes amid a busy Pacific hurricane season linked to the strengthening El Niño.
El Niño is the warm phase of a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific, which can last several months to more than a year and may vary in strength. El Niño typically favors above-average tropical activity in the eastern and central Pacific and tends to suppress activity in the Atlantic.
As El Niño continues to strengthen, the eastern Pacific remains active, with seven named storms, including two hurricanes, so far this season.
Of the two hurricanes, Genevieve reached Category 5 intensity, with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph, during the last week of July.
Only Fausto has crossed Hawaii’s longitude so far this season. The weakening tropical storm passed well north of the islands in late July, limiting its effects to increased waves and isolated showers.
After a lull during the first week of August, signs point to tropical activity increasing again in the eastern Pacific.
“We are monitoring three areas in the eastern Pacific for possible tropical development during the second week of August,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “One could encounter steering winds that guide it toward Hawaii.”
AccuWeather meteorologists have identified Aug. 10-12 as the most likely window for the tropical wave to develop.
Get Your AccuWeather Forecast“If this wave develops, steering winds could bring impacts to Hawaii around Aug. 14-15,” DaSilva said.
A tropical storm or hurricane could track close enough to Hawaii to produce dangerous seas and surf, heavy rain, flash flooding and locally damaging winds. Even without becoming a named storm, a strong tropical wave could increase trade winds and bring more frequent showers and thunderstorms to parts of the islands.
AccuWeather meteorologists currently assess a high chance that the tropical wave will develop within the next few days. The next named storm in the eastern Pacific will be Hernan, while the next named storm in the central Pacific will be Lala.
“We are projecting 17-22 named storms in the eastern Pacific and four to seven in the central Pacific in 2026,” DaSilva said. “Of those, nine to 13 could become hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and two to four in the central Pacific.”
The eastern and central Pacific hurricane basins are divided at 140 degrees west longitude.
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