Major nor’easter threat looms as snowstorm set to blanket mid-Atlantic, southern New England
The Northeast faces the 5th weekend in a row with snow as a strengthening storm will deliver heavy snow, travel shutdowns and power outages from Delmarva to New York City and southern New England.
For the latest storm and snowfall information on the upcoming nor'easter and blizzard, click this new story link.
A storm strong enough to bring accumulating snow and slippery travel will spread from West Virginia, Virginia and Pennsylvania to the mid-Atlantic and southern New England with blizzard conditions along the coast. There is the risk that the storm will strengthen rapidly, bringing heavier snow to parts of the Interstate-95 corridor, including New York City and Philadelphia.
"Not only will the storm evolve into a significant nor'easter with strong winds and heavy snow along parts of the Atlantic Coast, but it may become a bomb cyclone as it begins to move away," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill said. "A bomb cyclone is a storm that rapidly strengthens when the central barometric pressure in the storm drops 0.71 of an inch of mercury (24 millibars) in 24 hours or less."
"It is not out of the question that there could be blizzard conditions for a time Sunday night, especially parts of the Jersey Shore, eastern Long Island and far southeast New England, including Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard," AccuWeather Vice President of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin said.
Snowstorm setup
The storm, expected from Saturday night through Monday, will follow a series of systems that is delivering snow and ice to parts of the Midwest and Northeast, with a vast zone of warm air remaining in place to the south into Saturday.
Now in California, it will reorganize over the Gulf Coast Saturday before strengthening near the Atlantic Coast Sunday.
Details on coastal storm snow accumulation
Compared to the cold snowstorm from Jan. 24-25, which was dry and powdery in nature, this storm will be rather warm, with snow being heavy and wet. But, despite the wet nature of the snow, there could still be substantial blowing and drifting due to high winds as well as whiteout conditions at times.
“The exact track of this storm, along with how quickly it strengthens, will determine how much snow falls in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast,” DePodwin said. “The supply of cold air is limited, and that could also affect snowfall totals.”
Despite the lack of fresh cold air ahead of the storm, there should be just enough cold air for precipitation to fall mainly as snow from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia, New York City and Boston. However, some of the snow may melt on contact with paved surfaces, DePodwin said.
“During the day Sunday and Monday, when snow is not falling heavily, highways and city streets can be just wet or slushy in spots due to temperatures near freezing combined with the higher sun angle in late February,” DePodwin explained. “However, there will be periods when snowfall rates are heavy enough to overcome marginal temperatures and sunlight, especially at night.”
In the heart of the storm from Sunday night, snowfall rates may reach 1-2 inches per hour, potentially overwhelming road crews.
Areas from Delaware and central New Jersey through Philadelphia and New York City to Boston can expect 6-12 inches of snow, with 3-6 inches around Washington, D.C. In the higher terrain of West Virginia, 6-12 inches of snow is also forecast.
The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ is 26 inches from late Saturday night to Sunday night. Snowfall totals over a foot are most likely from Long Island through southern Rhode Island and Cape Cod.
Blizzard conditions in New York, Boston
As the storm strengthens off the Northeast coast, strong winds will pick up from Delaware to Maine. Throughout the duration of the storm, winds will regularly gust to 50 mph, with any gusts above 60 mph most likely across Cape Cod and the islands of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket in southeastern Massachusetts.
These strong wind gusts will foster blizzard conditions across the area, including in New York City and Boston. There will be near-zero visibility and very dangerous travel in the heaviest snowfall rates, particularly on Sunday night.
As the storm rapidly intensifies along the coast, it will become a significant nor'easter with the effects peaking Sunday night and lingering into the Monday morning commute.
Near-zero visibility and travel disruptions won't be the only effects felt from the strong winds, as heavy snow can also lead to regional power outages.
As winds kick up along the coast, tides will trend above astronomical levels with some minor flooding possible at high tide. Some beach erosion will occur, especially in eastern Massachusetts.
5 weekends in a row with snow for these cities
For some areas in the Northeast, assuming the storm this weekend pans out as forecast, this will be the fifth weekend in a row for snow.
"Including the weekend of the big storm from Jan. 24-25, it has at least flaked in New York City for four weekends in a row so far," AccuWeather On-Air Meteorologist Ariella Scalese said.
For the season to date, New York City is very close to the historical average with 22.3 inches of snow compared to the historical average of 22.1 inches.
During the approximately one-month period from Jan. 19 to Feb. 16, New York City has recorded temperatures 9.4 degrees Fahrenheit below the historical average, including nine consecutive days when the temperature never reached the freezing mark (32°F).
Much of the Northeast had temperature departures of 6-12 degrees below the 30-year average during the same period.
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