Wickedly warm winter cost businesses $8 billion in losses in the northern Plains
Families and businesses may have saved money on heating costs and snow removal after a mild winter across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, but the lack of cold weather took a massive toll on the region’s economy.
AccuWeather’s Bernie Rayno and Jon Porter discuss the negative economic impact of what has been an abnormally warm winter for the northern Plains region of the United States.
Families and businesses may have saved money on heating costs and snow removal after a remarkably mild winter across much of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, but the lack of cold weather took a massive toll on the region’s economy.
Dozens of outdoor events and traditions, including ice fishing competitions, ice castle festivals, ice skating, ice fishing and ice hockey, were scaled back, delayed or canceled this winter due to unseasonably high temperatures and a lack of ice on the lakes.
Minnesota, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa all reported their highest winter temperatures on record.
Ice coverage across the Great Lakes reached near-record low or all-time record low levels this past winter.
Less than 30 inches of snow fell at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport this winter, roughly 55 percent of the historical average for the season.
Lack of cold, snow and ice cost businesses billions
AccuWeather expert meteorologists estimate the total economic damage and loss caused by the warm winter conditions in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest at around $8 billion.
Seasonal workers were reportedly laid off, and losses have been reported at dozens of resorts, outdoor recreation businesses and snow removal companies.
Economic injury disaster loans through the U.S. Small Business Administration have been made available to hospitality and tourism businesses that were impacted by the lack of cold, snow and ice under an ongoing federal drought declaration in dozens of counties across Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan.
AccuWeather’s economic loss estimate incorporates independent methods to evaluate direct and indirect impacts of the weather, includes both insured and uninsured losses and is based on a variety of sources, statistics and unique techniques AccuWeather uses to estimate impact and loss to various parts of the economy. It also includes the long-term effect on business logistics, transportation and tourism, as well as the other expenses of yet unreported impacts.â¯
To put this event into context, AccuWeather experts estimated the total damage and economic loss from flooding, washouts and mudslides from Hurricane Hilary in California and the Southwest U.S. last February at $9 billion to $11 billion. AccuWeather estimated the damage and economic loss from Hurricane Idalia in August 2023 to be $18 billion to $20 billion. The wildfire in Hawaii last August had an estimated damage and economic loss totaling $14 billion to $16 billion. AccuWeather experts estimate Hurricane Nicole caused $5 billion to $7 billion in damage and economic losses in November of 2022.
Why was this past winter so warm?
Winter temperatures across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest have risen an average of 4 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit since the start of the 20th century.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson says the warming winter trend in this region is higher than any other area in the lower 48 states.
“On average, there has been a five- to 20-day reduction in the number of ‘extreme cold days’ in the Upper Midwest and northern Plains, compared to historic average back in the late 1940’s,” said Anderson. “Some areas are experiencing less snowfall, others are seeing more. The main reason is winters are getting wetter in this region. It is still cold enough in northern areas, most of the time, to see snow instead of rain or a wintry mix. By the end of the century, more areas could see a decrease in annual snowfall as winter temperatures continue to rise."
Anderson says a strong El Niño pattern in place this past winter was also a major factor in the lack of snow. El Niño winters typically result in less snowfall in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest because the pattern often results in a primary storm track that bypasses the region.
“The combination of a strong El Niño and climate change has clearly played a role in the lack of cold air across much of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest this winter,” explained Anderson. “In terms of a lack of snow, El Niño appears to be the key factor to blame.”
Early signs of hope for next winter?
Following a record-shattering winter with high temperatures that hit the tourism industry hard, AccuWeather expert meteorologists say there are early indicators of colder temperatures and more opportunities for snow for the winter of 2024-2025.
“There is a growing likelihood that we switch to a La Niña pattern by this coming fall or winter. If that happens, colder air and snowier conditions could return to the northern Plains and Upper Midwest,” said Anderson. “More ice could return to the Great Lakes as well, after a winter with record-low ice coverage."
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