Dorian Weakens, Impacts Still for Caribbean, Bahamas
By By Kristina Pydynowski, senior meteorologist
July 30, 2013, 12:44:52 AM EDT
Dorian is no longer a tropical storm but will still impact those along its path Sunday through Tuesday.
Despite entering warmer waters, Dorian lost its battle with disruptive west to southwest winds in the middle layers of the atmosphere.
At 3 p.m. EDT Saturday, AccuWeather.com meteorologists determined that Dorian was no longer a tropical storm.
The National Hurricane Center made it official at 4:30 p.m. Saturday. Dorian is now a tropical rainstorm.
Dorian will remain on a west to northwest track through the next several days. Dorian will pass north of the Leeward Islands Sunday and nearby to the north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic Monday.
Remaining weak, it would pass near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southernmost Bahamas on Tuesday before reaching Cuba.
Dorian still threatens to graze the northern Caribbean Islands with some drenching and gusty showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday, but the majority of the activity will remain to the north.
Such enhanced shower activity will reach the Turks and Caicos and southernmost Bahamas Monday night and Tuesday, then Cuba later Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Localized flash flooding is possible.
Dorian will also kick up the surf along the northern shores of the Caribbean Islands Sunday and Monday, creating hazards for beachgoers.
Later next week, there are several scenarios with Dorian.
It could be scooped up by the back side of high pressure near Bermuda over the Atlantic Ocean, allowing Dorian to travel along or off the Southeast coast of the United States.
Another scenario allows Dorian to miss the "right turn lane" and continue westward into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
In the middle of this wide window, but not necessarily the most likely third scenario is for the system to reach the southeastern U.S. with a pocket of drenching rainfall, around the first weekend of August.
It is possible that Dorian could follow in the footsteps of Chantal and maintains its tropical rainstorm status.
However, AccuWeather.com meteorologists will continue to monitor the possibility of Dorian re-strengthening as the system reaches the southeastern Atlantic Ocean or the southern Gulf of Mexico.
It appears highly unlikely Dorian will gather enough conditions to become a hurricane even if intensification occurs later next week.
AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski contributed to the content of this story.
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