After a relatively quiet period this week, surging heat over the middle of the nation next week will spark multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms and areas of heavy rain.
Thunderstorms this week have been and generally will continue to be relatively benign. A few storms had their moments along the Atlantic Seaboard Tuesday evening, but they were nothing like the outbreak experienced in the South days earlier.
The weather pattern is about to amplify again sending a surge of warmth from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley for a time next week.
While the situation is rather complicated, in simple terms the surge of summerlike air will meet up with resistance in some areas and will then eventually be chopped down.
As these air masses engage each other, the doors of moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will be opened. Note that much of the time this week the influence of Gulf moisture has been lacking. The absence of Gulf moisture has contributed to minimize rainfall and thunderstorm severity.
We're not saying the situation next week will match the number and strength of the thunderstorms and tornadoes reached during the outbreak in late April. However, there will be multiple days with a severe weather threat from the southern Plains to parts of the Ohio and Mississippi valleys.
The details as to which areas will be hit with severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes will unfold over the next few days. A key player in the situation for next week is track of a storm system now over the Pacific Ocean passing just south of Alaska.
Supercell thunderstorms will first fire over parts of western and central Texas and the southern Plains Sunday and Monday. In this area, an eastward-moving dry line will be the focusing point. These isolated, yet intense storms would bring a damaging wind, large hail and tornado threat.
Meanwhile, there will be drenching rain and locally strong thunderstorm activity firing along a developing warm front from the Ohio Valley to the Carolinas during the second part of this weekend. These storms would bring a flash flooding and hail threat.
Next week, as the bubble of heat builds into the Midwest and the Deep South, showers and locally severe thunderstorms will surround it like a ring of fire.
During the second half of next week, violent thunderstorms including some tornadoes will target the Plains, while pockets of heavy rain and perhaps flash flooding will expand from the northern Great Lakes to part of the Atlantic Seaboard.
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