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Royal Wedding outlook: Rain appears unlikely as typical spring temperatures are predicted

By Jennifer Fabiano, AccuWeather staff writer
April 30, 2018, 1:19:22 PM EDT

Prince Harry and American actress Meghan Markle will marry on May 19 in St. George’s Chapel at Windsor Castle, located outside of London. The royal couple announced the engagement on Nov. 27, 2017.

Temperature, rain, wind and sunshine are the four main weather conditions that could affect the wedding festivities.

Royal wedding

Britain's Prince Harry and his fiancee Meghan Markle pose for photographers during a photocall in the grounds of Kensington Palace in London, Monday Nov. 27, 2017. Britain's royal palace says Prince Harry and actress Meghan Markle are engaged and will marry in the spring of 2018. (AP Photo/Matt Dunham)

The normal high temperature in London for May 19 is 18.5 C (66.3 F), and the normal low is 8.5 C (47.3 F). With mostly normal temperatures throughout April, AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys expects the high temperature to be about 17 C (62.6 F), right around the normal.

Although there was a heat wave in April, resulting in the warmest London Marathon on record, Roys does not think there will be another for the royal wedding festivities.

A heat wave in London is classified as five or more consecutive days in which the maximum temperature climbs above the maximum normal temperature by 5 degrees Celsius, based on the World Meteorological Organization scale.

London infogram

“The most important thing is not necessarily temperature, but actually rather if there is any rain or not,” Roys said.

Rain could significantly impact events of the weekend, but Roys does not believe that it will. The average amount of rainfall in London on May 19 is 1.3 millimeters (0.05 of an inch).

Seven percent of the rain that London gets during the year occurs in May, so it is not considered a wet month, according to Roys.

For May 19 over the last 20 years, 10 dates have recorded precipitation, usually in the form of a brief shower.

“That day itself is not a true wet day,” Roys said.

Only once over the last 20 years has there been more than a tenth of an inch of precipitation on May 19, and that was in 2003.

When it comes to rain, there is a very low probability for storms, but brief showers in the area can't be ruled out, Roys said.

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The royal family will also be lucky to not have to deal with high winds as “the threat for wind is low to nonexistent,” according to Roys.

The threat for windstorms with gusts over 50 mph is greater in the fall and early spring, but not as much of a threat in late May. The average wind speed for this time of year is 6 to 8 knots around the London metro.

In addition, May is a relatively sunny month for the London area, which sees about 190 to 200 hours of sunshine throughout the month, according to Roys.

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