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Jose to keep surf rough along East Coast as it swirls offshore; How close will it approach?

By Renee Duff, AccuWeather meteorologist
September 15, 2017, 11:21:09 AM EDT

Jose will track between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States into next week, generating dangerous seas in the process.

Jose is currently a tropical storm located about 400 miles northeast of the Bahamas. The strong winds around the storm have triggered high seas in the western Atlantic for the past week.

"We expect Jose to fluctuate between a minimal hurricane and tropical storm over the next several days," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

The storm will pass between Bermuda, the Bahamas and the southern Atlantic Seaboard as it tracks to the west, northwest and then north into next week.

Jose track 9.15 AM

“Even though Jose will not come close to any landmass through at least Monday, it will generate large swells that will propagate away from the hurricane,” Kottlowski said.

Swells will start to ease across the north- and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos islands and the Bahamas as Jose moves farther away this weekend.

Rough surf will persist from Florida to Massachusetts into next week. Nova Scotia could face building seas early next week.

Static Jose Beach Impacts

“The strength and frequency of rip currents will increase at a time when many lifeguards are no longer on duty and people may head to the beach to take advantage of building warmth,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

Given the duration of rough surf, extensive beach erosion can occur along the East Coast.

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Where is Jose headed next week?

There are several paths Jose can take next week once it passes between the Carolinas and Bermuda.

Jose could be swept completely out to sea by a non-tropical system, passing between Bermuda, the Northeast coast and Atlantic Canada. In this scenario, the storm would mainly be a hazard to cruise and shipping interests in the North Atlantic. Rough surf and beach erosion would remain a problem for coastal areas.

Static Jose Track Scenarios

Another path would take Jose farther to the west, bringing clouds, rain and gusty winds to part of the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts and eventually Atlantic Canada. This would occur if Jose fails to get swept up as quickly by the non-tropical system.
The storm could even stall off the Northeast coast for a time next week.

“A persistent onshore flow in some locations may lead to coastal flooding at times of high tide for many days even if Jose remains a few hundred miles offshore,” Sosnowski said.

All interests in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Jose through the weekend.

T.D. 14/Tropical Wave 9.15 AM

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Tropical Depression Fourteen formed off the west coast of Africa on Thursday night. The system will move westward in a favorable environment for intensification, and will likely become a tropical storm in the coming days.

Another cluster of showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles to the west of Tropical Depression Fourteen may organize and strengthen as it moves toward the Lesser Antilles into next week.

The next names for tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin are Lee and Maria.

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