Oman, Pakistan, India on Alert for Tropical Cyclone Nilofar
By By Eric Leister, Meteorologist
October 30, 2014, 9:10:20 AM EDT
Tropical Cyclone Nilofar developed on Saturday in the middle of the Arabian Sea and will bring impacts to parts of Oman, Pakistan and India this week.
The cyclone has likely reached peak intensity. It is currently the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane. The combination of warm ocean waters and relatively low wind shear will allow the system to maintain intensity into early Wednesday, before an inevitable weakening trend ensues.
Nilofar will continue on a north track through Wednesday before taking a turn toward the northeast during the second half of the week. Nilofar's track toward the north and northeast will keep the center of the cyclone east of Oman with only the outer fringes of the storm bringing gusty winds and downpours to the far eastern part of the country.
While the threat for widespread damaging winds and flooding is reduced in Oman, any thunderstorm from Nilofar can produce locally damaging winds and heavy rain.
Even though Nilofar will pass east of Oman, dangerous rip currents and rough surf will affect the coast through much of the upcoming week.
Beyond Thursday, Nilofar will get steered to the east-northeast across the northern Arabian Sea toward the coasts of southeastern Pakistan and the Indian state of Gujarat by the end of the week.
Landfall is expected Saturday night, local time, near the border of Pakistan and India. Interaction with increased wind shear and dry continental air from Asia will cause the cyclone to rapidly weaken as it approaches Pakistan and India. Tropical storm-force wind gusts are only expected near the coast, as localized flooding appears to be the biggest concern with this storm.
As southwest wind shear interactions with the cyclone, it will pull moisture northeastward ahead of the cyclone leading to scattered downpours in far southeast Pakistan and western Gujarat.
These downpours can lead localized flooding, but widespread flooding is not expected across the region at this time.
The cyclone will likely dissipate before moving farther inland limiting impacts from advancing farther northeast into India.
The possibility exists that the wind shear dissipates the storm before reaching India and Pakistan. In this scenario, only some scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the region with no threat for damaging winds or flooding rainfall.
Meteorologist Erik Pindrock and Dave Samuhel contributed to this story.
Comments that don't add to the conversation may be automatically or manually removed by Facebook or AccuWeather. Profanity, personal attacks, and spam will not be tolerated.
More Weather News
Weather News - December 16, 2018, 11:53:53 AM EST
Residents of northern Queensland endured a second and more severe strike by former-Tropical Cyclone Owen.
Weather News - December 16, 2018, 2:48:23 PM EST
As students embark on winter break, last-minute shoppers head to the stores and holiday travel ramps up across the country later this week, a major storm could lead to widespread travel headaches in the eastern U.S.
Weather News - December 16, 2018, 10:53:37 AM EST
Severe Cyclonic Storm Phethai in the Bay of Bengal to move into eastern India early in the week bringing damaging winds and flooding rainfall.
Weather News - December 16, 2018, 11:44:25 AM EST
Cold air diving into the northeastern United States to start the new week will be accompanied by gusty winds, snow and the threat for slippery travel.
Weather News - December 16, 2018, 11:04:44 AM EST
Storm Deirdre caused travel hazards, power outages and disruptions this weekend across the United Kingdom.
Weather News - December 16, 2018, 2:43:44 PM EST
Large storms and cold air are likely to take a break over much of the nation during much of the week ahead of the Christmas holiday.
Weather News - December 16, 2018, 5:40:13 AM EST
A storm will continue to bring rain, fog, ice and a wintry mix to parts of the northeastern United States this weekend.
Weather News - December 16, 2018, 11:19:46 AM EST
Rain, wind, mountain snow and rough surf will lash the Northwest and California through Sunday night as the barrage of Pacific storms continues.