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A sweep of drier air has replaced the monsoon rain that recently soaked northern Pakistan, northern India and Bangladesh, giving some communities the last significant rainfall for at least several weeks.
Despite raising the danger of flash flooding, the recent rainfall has been beneficial to the communities ending the monsoon season with a rainfall deficit before the upcoming dry winter months take hold.
This includes in New Delhi, where nearly 22 mm (0.86 of an inch) of rain fell on Saturday. The city has received only 18 percent of September’s normal rainfall. If it were not for Saturday’s rain, that percentage would be near zero.
“From Friday through Monday, heavy rain pounded the city of Surat, totaling more than 330 mm (13 inches) of rain,” stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister.
Islamabad, Pakistan, received 40 mm (1.58 inches) of rain on Tuesday.
“It looks like northwestern India and Pakistan are largely done with meaningful rain for several weeks,” stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls. “The monsoon is certainly over in these areas, so any rainfall in late October and November will come from [dips in the jet stream] swinging through.”
More significant rain, however, is on the horizon for eastern India.
“A monsoon low will push into eastern India late next week and push west to open October,” stated Nicholls. Some of the low's moisture will also bring showers and thunderstorms back to Bangladesh.
“However, rainfall from this low [in India] looks to make it only as far west and north as the states of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra," continued Nicholls. “The city of Mumbai could get some rain from this low, but the heaviest rains may stay east of the city."
Prior to the low tracking onshore, AccuWeather meteorologists will be monitoring the potential for it to become a stronger tropical cyclone.
“Late September to early December is the second peak for the northern Indian Ocean tropical season,” Nicholls added.
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