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Monsoon downpours pose widespread flood risk across India through Monday

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
By Adam Douty, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
July 28, 2019, 11:40:13 AM EDT


With the monsoon in full swing, more lives and property will be threatened through at least Monday with numerous downpours taking aim at India.

Flooding in recent weeks across India and neighboring Nepal and Bangladesh has resulted in more than 300 deaths. That number is expected to rise as hundreds of people remain missing across the three countries, according to Reuters.

On Friday night, a train with around 700 passengers became stranded due to flooding near Mumbai. Local officials report that all passengers have been evacuated safely.


A brief reprieve from heavy rainfall late last week allowed flood waters to recede and river levels to lower across northeastern India; however, daily downpours will bring a renewed risk for localized flash flooding across the region into early week.

At the same time, a zone of widespread downpours accompanying a monsoon low is expected to stretch across northern and central India through the beginning of the week. This band of rain will bring the first burst of monsoon moisture to northwestern India and southeastern Pakistan.

India AP 7/22

An Indian family rides on a two wheeler during rain in Hyderabad, India, Tuesday, July 16, 2019. India receives its monsoon rains from June to September. (AP Photo/Mahesh Kumar A.)


While rainfall will be much welcome for the region's water supply, the risk for flooding will unfold.

Rainfall from this monsoon low can produce pockets of 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) through Monday. Madhya Pradesh may be among the hardest-hit locations, where there can be an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 300 mm (12 inches).

North of the monsoon low, downpours will also spread over the National Capital Region into Monday. Since the most widespread rainfall of the season so far is expected, there can be flash flooding and travel delays.

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Enhanced downpours will also heighten the risk of flooding along India's western coastline.

Monsoon India update 7-28-19


Locations from northern Kerala to southern Gujarat will be at risk for flash flooding as downpours bring daily rainfall amounts of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) to many locations with local amounts up to 150 mm (6 inches).

Total rainfall through Monday will average 150-300 mm (6-12 inches) from Mangaluru to Ratnagiri, Mumbai and Surat. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 500 mm (20 inches) is possible where the heaviest downpours repeat.

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