Madagascar, La Reunion on alert for Tropical Cyclone Dumazile through early week

By Courtney Spamer, AccuWeather meteorologist
By Adam Douty, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
March 04, 2018, 11:29:00 AM EST

Dumazile will brush Madagascar and La Reunion with gusty winds and flooding rainfall through the beginning of the week.

Currently a tropical cyclone, Dumazile is expected to strengthen further and may become a intense tropical cyclone during the beginning of the week.

"The environment east of Madagascar will be favorable for further strengthening through Monday," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Faith Eherts.

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The center of the storm is likely to stay over water, and off the eastern shore of Madagascar, meaning the highest wind gusts will be found there as well. This will create dangerous seas and boating conditions in the surrounding area.

Wind gusts over 100 km/h (62 mph) will still be possible in any thunderstorms in the outer bands of the storm, including along the eastern shores of the island.

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Sustained winds up to 185 km/h (115 mph) are possible across the waters between Madagascar and La Reunion. This would be winds equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane in the Atlantic or the Eastern Pacific ocean basins.

Regardless of further strengthening, flooding rainfall will be a major impact.

Already, during the past 36 hours, 208.8 mm (8.22 inches) of rain fell in Giego-Suarez and 164.8 mm (6.49 inches) has fallen in Mananjary.

Additional rainfall amounts up to 150 mm (6 inches) are likely through Monday along the east coast of Madagascar.

Bands of heavy rainfall and gusty winds will also impact La Reunion through Tuesday.

"Significant impacts to La Reunion look to begin late on Sunday night as the storm approaches and continue into Tuesday," said Eherts.

During this time, the center of the storm is expected to pass to the west of La Reunion.

Residents in La Reunion should prepare for possible tropical storm-force wind gusts, added Eherts.

Torrential rainfall could bring 250 mm (10 inches) of rain across the island within a short period of time. This could be enough to trigger flash flooding.

Conditions will improve through the middle of the week as Dumazile continues to the south into the open waters of the southern Indian Ocean.

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