As Kong-rey pushes away from Taiwan, Japan will become the next target for flooding rainfall.
Kong-rey has begun interacting with a frontal boundary causing the storm to weaken as it moves northeastward through the East China Sea.
Although the interaction with this frontal boundary has caused the winds with Kong-rey to weaken, rainfall is now being enhanced along the entire frontal boundary. This means there will be a widespread threat of flooding from eastern China through Taiwan and into Japan this weekend.
Unfortunately, this frontal boundary will stall over the same areas through early next week promoting prolonged rainfall and a continued threat for flooding and mudslides across Taiwan and Japan.
The center of Kong-rey will move to the west of Japan, which could spare much the country from the heaviest rainfall. The heaviest rain associated with the center of Kong-rey will pass over northern Honshu and Hokkaido, later Saturday into Sunday. During this time, there will be a threat of life-threatening flooding.
A separate wave of low pressure will try to develop along the frontal boundary later this weekend and early next week. This could bring another round of heavy rainfall to Taiwan before shifting into Japan. Areas across southern and central Japan could see the threat of flooding rainfall and mudslides during this time.
This combination of tropical moisture and a stalled frontal boundary will lead to the potential of a long-duration heavy rainfall event across the region, so anyone from Taiwan through Japan should monitor the situation closely through early next week as Kong-rey.
Torrential rain from Kong-rey already caused flood waters to rise to second-story levels in Taiwan's west coast cities of Chiayi, Tainan and Kaohsiung, according to the Associated Press. At least three people have died thus far across Taiwan from flooding associated with Kong-Rey.
Officials in Tainan were also forced to evacuate 29 residents from a nursing home and to cancel some train services. Widespread rainfall in excess of 500 mm (20 inches) has been reported across southwest Taiwan. Chunri Township has recorded 939 mm (37 inches) of rainfall since Wednesday. The Shanshang District of Tainan City reported 899 mm (35.4 inches) of rainfall during the same time.
Through this weekend, the potential exists for 100 to 200 mm (4 to 8 inches) of rain across Kyushu and northern and western parts of Honshu. That rain could easily trigger flash flooding and landslides.
Additional such problems may arise for the first half of next week across these areas as the front that will eventually absorb Kong-rey lingers overhead, continuing to draw in tropical moisture and leading to more downpours.
While the city will miss out on the soaking from Kong-rey, Tokyo should see the return of wet weather next week from the front.
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