Hurricane Bud to strengthen, threaten Mexico with flooding as Aletta weakens

By Renee Duff, AccuWeather meteorologist
By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
June 11, 2018, 7:50:55 AM EDT


On the heels of Aletta, the first hurricane of the East Pacific hurricane season, Hurricane Bud has developed and will threaten western Mexico with flooding rainfall this week.

Aletta began as a tropical depression south of Mexico on Tuesday night before quickly reaching hurricane status early Thursday afternoon. By early Friday morning, Aletta rapidly strengthened to a major hurricane, reaching Category 4 hurricane status only a few hours later.

However, Aletta quickly dropped back to tropical storm status on Saturday.

Aletta will continue to track west-northwest, well south of the Mexico coastline as it dissipates through the beginning of the week.

As threats from Aletta diminish, Bud will bring a new round of threats this week.

Bud 5 am Mon Static


Bud is expected to move northwestward into Wednesday as it strengthens, tracking closer to the Mexico coastline than Aletta.

Damaging winds and widespread flash flooding are not expected from Bud through Monday; however, more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected from Oaxaca to Jalisco.

Some localized incidents of flash flooding are possible, but most locations will notice only an uptick in rainfall.

Coastal areas from Jalisco to Guerrero could have additional bouts of heavy rain and thunderstorms as Bud nears the coast during the middle of the week.

Communities such as Manzanillo, Tecomán and Colola will have to remain on alert for flash flooding through at least Wednesday. Small rivers and streams may quickly rise out of their banks and turn into deadly torrents.

Rough seas and dangerous rip currents will once again threaten beaches from Acapulco to Mazatlan, as well as southern Baja California, even though the storm remains far from these areas.

Boaters and bathers should use extreme caution and heed all small craft and beach advisories as they are issued.

If caught in a rip current, it is best to swim parallel to shore until free of its influence.

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"Bud is likely to strengthen as we go through the early part of the week as it travels over the same warm waters that Aletta just went through," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Courtney Spamer.

However, the track of the storm is not expected to be the same as Aletta.

"Instead of curving westward, Bud could continue its northward track toward the Baja Peninsula of Mexico. Although weakening would be likely, this track could send tropical moisture into the southwestern United States late this week," Spamer added.

SW US Bud downpours 3 am static


Such moisture would be beneficial to drought-stricken areas of the southwestern United States, but could also create flash flooding issues if there is too much rain too quickly.

AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate that the East Pacific basin will remain active this season with an above-normal number of tropical cyclones forecast.

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