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Downpours have fallen across parts of southern India and Sri Lanka since last week, resulting in localized flooding.
One of the hardest-hit locations was Chennai, where rainfall totaled around 100 mm (4 inches) on Sunday.
Additional downpours are expected into Saturday; however, the rainfall will be suppressed southward across southeast Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka.
Daily rainfall is expected from Puducherry to Coimbatore and Kochi into Thursday, but little to no flooding or travel delays are expected.
Areas from Pattukkottai to Ramanathapuram, Tirunelveli and Nagercoil will see heavier rainfall, with a heightened risk for flash flooding and travel impacts.
Rainfall totals of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) will be common, with local amounts up to 200 mm (8 inches).
Downpours will also spread farther inland from Thursday to Saturday bringing the threat for flooding to Madurai and surrounding areas.
Daily downpours will also impact Sri Lanka through Saturday, bringing a risk of flooding and mudslides.
Southern and eastern Sri Lanka will have the heaviest rainfall, with totals of 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) expected. Elsewhere, rainfall of 25-75 mm (1-3 inches) is forecast to fall across the island.
Rainfall will diminish on Sunday as the disturbance responsible for the downpours moves into the Arabian Sea.
While this disturbance will have an opportunity to develop into a tropical cyclone, it will not impact land from Sunday into early next week.
The break from heavy rainfall will not last long as another tropical cyclone attempts for take shape in the Bay of Bengal later this week.
Tropical development is possible as early as Thursday or Friday near the Andaman and Nicobar islands.
During this time, the Nicobar District will see the heaviest rainfall, with a high risk of flooding.
Rough seas and locally damaging winds will also be possible.
Lesser impacts are expected across North, Middle and South Andaman, where squally rain and wind are possible from Friday into Saturday.
The potential cyclone will then have an opportunity to further organize and strengthen as it crosses the southern Bay of Bengal this weekend.
Eastern India will be at risk for impacts from the tropical cyclone as early as Monday night, with areas from Tamil Nadu to Andhra Pradesh at highest risk for flooding and damaging winds.
Depending on the exact track, flooding rainfall could extend inland across Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Orissa next week.
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