Atlantic storm to trigger rough surf from Florida to Delaware this weekend

By By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist.
June 19, 2016, 7:41:53 AM EDT

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An offshore storm will threaten beachgoers along the southeastern coast of the United States with rough surf during Father's Day weekend.

The storm responsible for producing an outbreak of severe weather in the mid-Atlantic on Thursday will meander for a time over the Atlantic Ocean this weekend.

"While the center of the storm will be well offshore, the tight squeeze between it and an area of high pressure promoting a nice weekend across most of the East will kick up gusty northeasterly winds from the Delmarva Peninsula to Florida's east coast," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski said.

"The result will be for rough seas and rip currents to create hazards for boaters and swimmers."


The combination of high astronomical tides associated with the approach of the full moon and increasing onshore winds can result in minor flooding in low-lying coastal areas.

The northeast winds will otherwise trim the heat and humidity that recently built across the Southeast. AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures at Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and Savannah, Georgia, will be 15-20 degrees lower this weekend than on Friday.

While downpours will persist across Florida and the central Gulf Coast, the rest of the Southeast's Atlantic beaches will be mostly dry with some sunshine this weekend. A stray shower cannot be ruled out.

How much the storm strengthens before it begins to track northward will determine how rough the surf gets along the Northeast coast early this week.

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Father's Day forecast

"The storm is projected to track north-northeast parallel to the mid-Atlantic and New England coast during Monday night and Tuesday," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

An advancing cold front should prevent the storm from tracking into the Northeast.

There is a remote chance this system could acquire enough tropical characteristics to be classified as a subtropical storm.

While fully tropical storms tend to be rather small with a compact area of strong winds and heavy rain, a subtropical storm can have these same characteristics, but over a broader area.

Regardless of whether or not the Atlantic storm becomes subtropical or remains non-tropical, it will continue to produce unfavorable conditions for those heading to the beach for a time early this week.

There is a high likelihood that strong winds, large waves and torrential downpours remain out at sea.

"The Outer Banks of North Carolina would be most at risk for being grazed by the storm's rain and gusty winds," Pydynowski said.

"The storm should strengthen enough to create winds of 40-50 mph with gusts over 60 mph this weekend through Monday night," Kottlowski said. Such winds would be mostly east and northeast of the storm's center and offshore.


"These winds will generate very large waves leading to higher-than-normal surf along the North Carolina coast northward along the New England coast by Monday," Kottlowski said.

Beach and boating interests should monitor the progress of the storm system into next week.

"Even if the storm comes back toward the coast, many areas of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast are still likely to have sunny weather for Father's Day weekend," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Edward Vallee.

Showers and thunderstorms are still expected to return to the Northeast Monday night into Tuesday not from the Atlantic storm, but from the cold front that will steer the storm away.

There is another area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico being monitored for tropical development into early this week.

Should either the Gulf of Mexico and/or the Atlantic Ocean system reach subtropical storm status, the next names on the list for the Atlantic basin in 2016 are Danielle and Earl.

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