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Hurricane Carlos will remain a dangerous storm early this week as flooding rain and locally damaging winds impact parts of western Mexico.
A track toward the northwest is expected to continue through the midweek. This track will be over very warm ocean waters; however, increasing amounts of wind shear and dry air aloft will work weaken Carlos in the coming days.
Even if Carlos does not make landfall, it will still pass close enough to Mexico to deliver heavy rain along the coast.
The area with the highest threat for damaging wind will be from Puerto Vallarta to Manzanillo, but even these areas are expected to see only isolated damage as Carlos remains offshore. These damaging winds are expected to be largely confined to areas near the coast.
The main threat will continue to be flooding rainfall with areas from Lázaro Cárdenas to Puerto Vallarta in the highest threat zone. Mudslides are possible as well due to the rugged terrain of the region. Rain amounts will exceed 6 inches in the Sierra Madre Occidental Mountains along the southwest coast.
In addition to the life-threatening rainfall, dangerous surf will be seen in many resort cities along the western coast of Mexico.
Carlos is the third tropical system to form in the eastern Pacific Basin this season. The last storm was Blanca, which impacted the Baja Peninsula.
While continuing on a northwest track this week, Carlos will encounter cooler waters as it moves south of Baja California.
Much like Blanca, these cooler waters will act to weaken the cyclone significantly prior to impacts on Baja California, and Carlos will likely weaken over the open waters of the Eastern Pacific with no impacts to southern Baja California.
Anyone living in or traveling to areas from southwestern Mexico to Baja California should closely monitor the movement of this tropical threat over the next few days.
Content contributed by AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyson Hoegg, Adam Douty, and Jordan Root
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