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    Jesse Ferrell

    Thanksgiving Snow Maps, LR Model Hype

    By Jesse Ferrell, Meteorologist/Community Director
    11/21/2007, 1:54:27 PM
    PROGRAMMING NOTE: I will continue to blog over the Thanksgiving Holiday, but Friday Featured Fotos will not be seen this week. The J-SHOW will probably happen Wed. evening.

    I don't usually post these, because they are elsewhere on the site, but we have a particularly nice set of estimated snowfall forecast maps for this week's Thanksgiving Storm. See, it's snowing now in the northern Rockies and southern Montana (where up to a foot fell yesterday). The storm will move through Wyoming and Colorado tonight, where up to 6 inches of snow will fall.



    Then the storm moves into the Central Plains, providing up to three inches of snow from Missouri into Michigan, where up to 6 inches will fall. This will be Wednesday Afternoon to Thursday morning, causing travel woes for some of those 38,700,000 (38.7 million) people in the United States travelling more than 50 miles from home (AAA). And finally the swath of snow will move across southeast Ontario into southern Quebec and northern New England, where up to 25 centimeters (10 inches) of snow may fall. However, the populated area of the Northeast will remain snow-free throughout the week (except for some flurries northwest of I-95 late Thursday and Friday), according to our official forecast.



    We'll continue to update these maps through the Holiday; tune into our Weather Headlines (PREMIUM | PRO) and Breaking Weather News Page (PREMIUM | PRO).

    The two main Forecast Models [JessePedia] predicting it, the NMM and GFS, generally agree on this week's storm. Here's the GFS estimated snowfall (10:1 Snow Ratio [JessePedia]). White areas will be mostly flurries.


    In the Long-Range (LR), the GFS is cooking up some interesting weather for Texas this weekend and there will be another big storm next week and the track is all over the place. Here's the GFS map showing snow and mixed precip as far south as Mexico on Sunday (sorry Dallas, this doesn't move East):


    And here's the GFS Ensemble tracks of next week's storm in the East. What this means is that the model is very unsure of the storm's track, which will make a big difference in where the rain/snow line ends up.



    The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com


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    Jesse Ferrell