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The MJO signal supports the upcoming 15-day pattern. The phase change from 1 to 2 favors significant warmth or heat across the northern areas from the Plains to the Northeast fading and taken over by cooler-than-normal temperatures. In addition, the correlation, as far as precipitation, is a shift from above-normal precipitation from the north to the South, especially over the southern Plains and central Gulf coast.
The signal is weak now but will become a bit stronger later in the period. This is detected on the first graphic showing the ensemble members heading away from the point of origin. Also, the signal is stronger over Africa and the Indian Ocean where higher-than-normal convection will develop. What this may lead to is more frequent and/or stronger tropical waves coming off Africa down the road. This is something we feel will occur later this week into next week.
After far as the tropics, the chances are small for organized or developed systems in the Atlantic Basin this week. There is a stronger wave moving through the islands and heading for Florida at the start of the weekend with enhanced precipitation. The European even tries to develop a system late in the weekend, but the timing looks off.
Upper divergent chart
From July 17 and beyond, we may go through a period of strong tropical waves with better opportunities for developing systems. Looking at the upper-level divergence chart, which can give us a clue of where more-than-normal showers and thunderstorms may develop, shows the Gulf and Caribbean area of focus late month into the first week of August, then shifting over the southern Atlantic.
This is a stretch, but this could mean a better chance for development of storms in the Gulf and Caribbean for the second half of July, but increase over the southern Atlantic heading into week two of August.
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