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    Henry Margusity

    Why So Warm in the East? Severe Wx and Snow in the Forecast

    11/21/2011, 5:40:40 AM


    This to me is very interesting. Below is the SOI monthly values for 2010-2011. It shows that this time last year the SOI, which is the Southern Oscillation Index that gives you a strength of the El Nino/La Nina, values were very high compared to this year, which has values very low. That means the La Nina is not as strong as last year, and the implications may mean the warmth in the East could continue well through winter. We are planning on updating the winter forecast Dec. 1. I am just concerned that the warmth will last well into January, and looking at the European Monthly, which shows warmth overwhelming much of the central and eastern part of the country, the winter may be very different than last year with a lack of snow and cold. I do believe that snowstorms will occur, but it may be where is snows at 32 degrees that within a day or two, the snow is gone because the warmth comes right back. This is not a clear-cut winter forecast now.

    As for severe weather, the map shows the storms developing in Texas and moving northeast to the mid-Atlantic. We will see a few tornadoes, wind damage and hail with the storms today into Tuesday. By Wednesday, the storms will produce more wind damage and hail.

    Snow will develop across the far Northeast as shown on the map below. This is the same snowstorm I talked about all last week for the Northeast. Also, this may be the last snow event for a while in the Northeast because the warmth comes right back in.




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    Henry Margusity