About the Tropics
So throw out the models and start looking at the pattern. I see two scenarios once we have a system. The first scenario, the trough picks up the system and takes it out to sea. The second scenario is the system misses the connection with the trough and moves west into the Gulf of Mexico. The key to the track will be the intensity of the system by Saturday when the trough passes to the north of the Bahamas. The system looks nice and round this morning which says to me it wants to go once in an area for development. My gut feeling that we have at least a tropical depression by Saturday and that it misses the connection with the trough and heads west.
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Storm is coming up the coast but will only skirt New England. Heat follows into the East.
Florida gets drenched and the same storm skirts New England
While a system may develop, welcome rains will hit Florida this weekend.
System may develop in the Gulf of Mexico as the hurricane season starts today.