A bad day Thursday! That's my statement for the day as Thursday will be a day with a significant number of wind damage and tornado reports across Missouri and Arkansas. I posted the SPC map for tomorrow showing the moderate risk area. That area is where the probability of severe weather will be the greatest.
I am not as impressed for severe weather today because some of the parameters for severe weather are rather weak. If we do get severe storms, they will occur in Missouri late today and tonight as the low-level jet strengthens. A few supercells may develop across parts of Oklahoma and northern Texas, but they will be short-lived storms.
As I mentioned, Thursday will be the big day for severe weather. We also need to watch parts of the Ohio Valley for severe storms Thursday. The MCS that develops in Missouri tonight will race across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio and the warm sector of that MCS may have storms that can produce damaging winds and hail. The low-level jet will strengthen later tonight and Thursday to over 60 knots into Indiana and Ohio which will feed warm and more humid air over the warm front, thus producing the severe threat.
It will be an active week overall with the severe weather and even some snow for the Upper Midwest.
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Storm is coming up the coast but will only skirt New England. Heat follows into the East.
Florida gets drenched and the same storm skirts New England
The same storm that produces severe weather will produce a major storm this weekend.
The stormy weather pattern today will turn into a chilly blocking pattern this weekend.