1. I posted the graph of the El Nino forecast from the NCEP site. The Euro model El Nino forecast shows an even stronger El Nino developing by fall. My point, and the point I am making to anyone looking at the longer range, is that understanding the strength of the El Nino will help to understand what type of weather we will have across the country. I would not use the typical El Nino pattern graphics that are out because while there are some typical patterns of the El Nino, I have seen quite a variation in weather between El Nino years.
What I am speculating today is that the rains we are seeing across the Southeast are part of the El Nino pattern forming. We have also seen other evidence of the El Nino, such as the dry weather developing in Hawaii and the Wildlife dying off Peru.
It's coming folks and I will betcha that next winter will not be anything like it was last year.
2. Posted below is the map of the thunderstorms for today. Nothing really jumps out at me today in regards to any major severe weather events today.
3. Tropics should start to get active this weekend. The GFS has a storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico. The Euro tries to get something going along the East Coast. While the models are trying to figure out where a storm may develop, the message this morning is that the tropics are going to get active again.
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Storm is coming up the coast but will only skirt New England. Heat follows into the East.
Florida gets drenched and the same storm skirts New England
The same storm that produces severe weather will produce a major storm this weekend.
The stormy weather pattern today will turn into a chilly blocking pattern this weekend.