The GFS model has been quite odd the last couple of days dealing with the trough next week. I like the Euro model in regards to the strength of the trough. I do think the GFS is way too strong on the trough coming into the East. While the longer term beyond next Friday in regards to the severe weather remains uncertain, what we do know is that the trough will dig into the West, and that will set up a southwest flow across thr southern Plains. We should see dry line supercell thunderstorms develop across western Texas into western Kansas Sunday into Tuesday. After that, the trough moves into the Plains, and we see widespread severe weather developing from Kansas and Oklahoma to Missouri and Illinois. I do think the tornado threat will increase next week as the Gulf opens and the flow of heat and humidity heads north once again. We could be looking at another 25-100 tornado weather pattern.
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Storm is coming up the coast but will only skirt New England. Heat follows into the East.
Florida gets drenched and the same storm skirts New England
While a system may develop, welcome rains will hit Florida this weekend.
System may develop in the Gulf of Mexico as the hurricane season starts today.