Friday, 11:30 a.m.
My time is brief today, so I'll get right to it. Yesterday was a wild weather day in my own backyard - quite literally and figuratively! A tightly wound upper-level disturbance rolled slowly across Pennsylvania, and it generated an area of rain with embedded thunderstorms that spawned several small tornadoes and produced plenty of flash flooding! Dubois was hit hard by flooding rains, as was State College. Just a few hours after having lunch in Boalsburg with one of my former colleagues, Joe Bastardi, and his son, Garrett, they filmed a short video of what was likely an F0 tornado a short distance from their home! A second video has also been posted, and I've seen a little bit of the damage - this just about 5 or 6 miles from my house as the crow flies!
With regards to the flooding, torrents of water were sent cascading down the street in front of my house, along with a river across my backyard that contributed to the few inches of water in my basement. Large rocks were all over the place, forcing snow plows - yes, snow plows - to come and clear the street in front of my house - it was that bad!
That feature is now moving away from the Adirondacks, but another is jumping right in behind it. Look at the 500mb forecast for tomorrow evening:
This will help to carve out an upper-level trough over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, one that will ultimately be pulled back across the Mississippi Valley with time early next week. As a result of that, three major things will happen:
1) The heat currently building over the Rockies and interior West will expand farther west to become more north-south oriented. Look at the projected temperature anomalies in the West on Monday:
That will be just part of a week-long heat wave over much of the West. In some cases, it is already well underway!
2) The cool air will be centered on the Plains and Mississippi Valley. Gone will be the days of 95- to 100-degree heat or more. Instead, there will be multiple days with temperatures no higher than the 80s, a feat that is nearly impossible to pull off! Look at the projected departures on Wednesday:
The entire week should be significantly below normal from the eastern Rockies to the western slopes of the Appalachians.
3) Very humid and exceedingly wet weather will prevail in the East. With a persistent south to southwest flow emanating from the western Caribbean and crossing the eastern Gulf of Mexico, this corridor of moisture will streak all the way up the Eastern Seaboard. Look at the seven-day model projections of precipitation through the Fourth of July:
This pattern will likely to lead to flooding in the coming days, on top of what flooding has already occurred in the past 24 hours! And it's not likely to dry out in the East any time soon - there will be no strong pushes of dry air until sometime after the Fourth of July!
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