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    Summer Begins Relatively Quietly

    6/20/2014, 7:57:18 AM

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    Friday, 11:55 a.m.

    The summer solstice is tomorrow at 6:51 a.m. EDT, and no blistering heat wave appears on order for its arrival. The areas of the country with the highest temperatures tomorrow will be pretty much where you would expect to see them - across parts of the South and the Southwest deserts. Aside from those areas, most of the country will be near, if not below, average:

    If you look at it from the jet stream perspective, there is an upper-level ridge of high pressure over northwestern Mexico, with another over the western Gulf of Mexico:

    Over top of these two features is a broad but flat upper-level ridge over the Plains, something that is allowing a rather hot and humid air mass to move across the Plains toward the Midwest, but there it is running into resistance in the form of a front that stretches from southern Minnesota to Virginia. If we wanted to see some brutal heat, we'd probably be looking at a 594dm ridge or better, and that's just not there.

    The GFS does try to build that type of ridge later next week. Here's the 500mb forecast for next Friday afternoon:

    If that comes to fruition, then some triple-digit heat just might be in order for areas from West Texas up to western Kansas and maybe even eastern Colorado. Other models, though, are not so stout with this ridge building next week and even the GFS ensembles are not all that bullish on that type of ridge.

    Meanwhile, that boundary I mentioned earlier from southern Minnesota to Virginia will be the focal point for some rough weather into and through the weekend. Some of the thunderstorms in eastern Nebraska and Iowa could turn severe this afternoon and tonight, and a few cells from southern Ohio into Virginia and North Carolina may be pretty nasty as well.

    By and large, though, it is going to be a relatively quiet start to summer over the next 48 hours. As the next front moves across the northern Plains Sunday, there may be some strong to severe thunderstorms developing ahead of it, stretching from eastern Colorado into Nebraska and up into Minnesota later Sunday.

    The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com


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