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    Southeast Still Soggy While a Period of Heat Expands From the Northern Rockies to the Northeast

    8/19/2013, 6:41:25 AM

    Monday, 11:30 A.M.

    Even though the tropics are essentially dead at this point in time - no organized features in the Atlantic basin, and none in sight - they certainly have contributed to the sogginess across the central and eastern Gulf Coast region to the Southeast over the weekend. Pensacola, Fla., picked up over 6 inches of rain, and many places stretching from southeastern Mississippi and Alabama into the Carolinas were soaked with 2 to 4 inches of rain. And they aren't done yet.

    Look at the 12z Aug. 19 NAM 700 mb forecast for tomorrow morning:

    A weak, upper-level trough is still in place over the lower Mississippi Valley, and to the east of it moisture is still being drawn from the tropics. Granted, there really isn't a bona fide disturbance there any more, but as that south-to-southwest flow carries moisture from the tropics into the South and Southeast, you can expect to see a few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days. From the same model run, here's a look at model projections of precipitation through Wednesday:

    As the soggy weather lingers across the Southeast, it will dry out nicely over the top. The last upper-level disturbance is moving through the mid-Atlantic now, and will pull drier air eastward from the Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight. And that's not all that it will pull into the mid-Atlantic, either.

    It's been toasty over the weekend over the northern and eastern Rockies out into the northern Plains of late, as Denver set a new record on Saturday, and tied one Sunday. Many locations from Montana down to Colorado out into the northern and western Plains were well into the 80s Sunday afternoon, if not into the 90s.

    As the jet stream flattens out in the next couple of days, the heat now in place over the northern Rockies and northern Plains will be summoned quickly across the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes, boosting temperatures above normal and well into the 80s. The East will get a taste of that change tomorrow as sunshine returns in abundance. Then, with at least partial sunshine on Wednesday, more of the warmth will come over the top of the upper-level ridge. That means more places reaching well into the 80s on Wednesday from the Midwest to the mid-Atlantic, with some places getting to or beyond the 90-degree mark.

    Thursday appears to be the warmest day of the lot ahead of a cold front. There will probably be some showers and thunderstorms out ahead of the front, but enough sunshine to boost temperatures to or a bit higher than 90 in much of the I-95 corridor from Washington, D.C., up into New England. That front should move off the New England and mid-Atlantic coasts later Thursday night and Friday morning, allowing a much cooler and drier air mass to advance into the East behind it.

    The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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