Tropical threat off northern Australia
A tropical low or tropical rainstorm has formed north-northwest of Darwin and can strengthen as it is expected to drift southward over the next couple of days.
Courtesy Australian Bureau of Meteorology
There is a low chance that this rainstorm can become a tropical cyclone before striking the west coast of the Top End Saturday night or Sunday, local time. The timing and track of this feature differ on the latest modeling. The ECMWF model (orange arrow) is farther south and slower to turn east than the GFS (yellow arrow). We are leaning closer to the slower ECMWF model idea.
As a result, we are expecting heavy rainfall and the risk of flooding across the northern Northern Territory from Saturday into Tuesday, local time. Gusty winds and rough seas are possible along the west coast of the Top End late Saturday into Sunday, local time. There is a good chance for the system to turn eastward late Sunday or Monday, local time.
If the low center can move over the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Carpentaria early next week, it can strengthen and possibly reach tropical cyclone intensity. Regardless, this feature can bring heavy rain and the risk of flooding to northern Queensland Tuesday into Wednesday, local time. Rain could reach northern Queensland later Monday into Tuesday, local time, if the quicker GFS idea is correct.
The rainstorm can eventually push into the Coral Sea later next week where there is a chance for strengthening as it tracks south-southeastward away from Australia.Report a Typo