Developing El Nino and warm waters over the eastern equatorial Pacific will be a big factor for the upcoming winter season.
As a result of El Nino conditions, we are expecting temperatures higher than historical averages across much of South America from central Chile and central Argentina northward. However, temperatures can be close to historical averages in eastern Bolivia, western Paraguay and north-central Argentina.
A frost and freeze will be possible in the Pampas of Argentina by mid-month, which is later than winter of 2022.
The risk of frost and freeze into the coffee areas of Brazil looks lower than usual but cannot be ruled out in far southern areas later in the winter.
Following drier-than-typical weather and drought conditions in northern Argentina, Uruguay and southeast Brazil, the developing El Nino can lead to improved rainfall opportunities in July and August.
These areas can remain drier than historical averages in June, but northern Argentina, Uruguay and southeast Brazil can have rainfall near to above historical averages for the season. This can result in improving drought conditions later in the season.
El Nino typically improves precipitation chances across Chile, and we are expecting precipitation near historical averages in many areas. However, it can be wetter in south-central Chile, especially around Concepcion.
Pockets of drier-than-historical averages are possible in parts of northern and central Chile, including around Santiago, mostly owing to dry conditions early in the season.
Weather wetter than historical averages is expected from Ecuador into northwest Peru which can result in flooding concerns.
Much of northern Brazil into eastern Venezuela as well as parts of Colombia is expected to be drier than historical averages. This can result in developing drought concerns.
Precipitation across central Brazil should average close to historical averages, and this should maintain favorable conditions for winter crops.

Asia

The summer will start on a dry note from northeast China across portions of the Korean Peninsula into northwest Japan.
There is the chance for some early heat in these areas.
Wetter weather is expected in northeast China, the Korean Peninsula into Japan mid- to late summer while southeast China turns drier than historical averages.
Much of Southeast Asia and southeast China to the Philippines will have rainfall near to above historical averages, but averages will be drier than historical in Malaysia and Indonesia.
A late onset of India’s summer monsoon will mean drier-than-usual conditions across much of India in June, but southwest India and far northern Pakistan into far northwest India can have rainfall near historical averages.
Rainfall can be near historical averages in much of the Middle East, especially early in the season. However, it can be drier than usual across the Arabian Peninsula later in the summer.
Rainfall can be near historical averages across Turkey, Lebanon and Syria.
Khareef season can be down from previous years but can end up averaging near historical averages with the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole expected this summer.
Much of Asia and the Middle East will be warmer than historical averages with the risk of heat waves. The best chance for heat in Japan and northeast China will be in June and July, with the focus shifting to southeast China late in summer.
South Asia monsoon outlook. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/international/south-asia-2023-monsoon-outlook/1507526

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