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    Arctic Sea Ice Update and Extent Forecasts

    7/10/2014, 3:20:09 PM

    The seasonal rate of sea ice loss in the Arctic during the month of June was fairly normal, though it accelerated toward the end of the month, according to the experts at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

    Decrease in Arctic sea ice extent since March compared to the last 5 years and the 1981-2010 average. Image courtesy of the NSIDC.

    590x472_07101914_asina_n_stddev_timeseries


    As you can see, we are currently running in between 2011 and 2013.

    Below is the most recent Arctic Sea Ice minimum Outlook from the Sea Ice Prediction Network. The Outlook includes forecasts from all types of sources.


    590x640_07101936_sio_june2014_figure1


    As you can see, the median of the forecasts is close to 4.7 million sq/km extent for the September minimum. The September 2013 minimum was 5.4 million sq/km, while the record low minimum set in 2012 was just over 3.6 million sq/km. The 1981-2010 average is 6.5 million sq/km.

    There will be an update later this month.

    Latest Arctic Sea Ice volume anomaly and trend from PIOMAS.


    590x429_07101941_bpiomasicevolumeanomalycurrentv2


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    Improved coverage of Arctic ice thickness.

    The U.S. Navy's Ofice of Naval Research (ONR) recently deployed three clusters of mass balance buoys on the sea ice in the Beaufort Sea at three different latitudes. The image below shows the changes in air temperature, ice depth/temperature and water depth/temperature at those locations from March to June 2014. Clearly, this type of data will be very useful for researchers and will improve modeling forecasts.


    590x479_07101946_figure61


    There has been a dramatic loss of summer ice in the Beaufort Sea in recent years due to a loss of thicker, multi-year sea ice.

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    Also, feel free to comment on the current AccuWeather.com story about the recent change of the warmest month for the U.S., which is on our front page from our partner Live Science....Change in Hottest U.S. Month isn't a Conspiracy: Here's Why

    The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

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    Global climate change