Arctic melt season may be ice free as early as the 2030s
New research from the Pohang University of Science & Technology (South Korea) warns that the Arctic melt season may become totally ice-free as early as the 2030s if the pace of global greenhouse gas emissions goes unabated.
Climate models used in previous IPCC predictions have generally underestimated the decline in Arctic sea ice.
Even if global emissions are significantly reduced, the Arctic melt season will still become ice-free, but it would likely be delayed until the 2050s, according to the report. (Image below credit: POSTECH)
The research, which was led by Professor Seung-Ki Min and Research Professor Yeon-Hee Kim from the Division of Environmental Science and Engineering at Pohang University of Science and Technology, analyzed 41 years of data from 1979 to 2019. During this period, there has been a dramatic decline in sea ice extent in the Arctic. By comparing the results of multiple model simulations with three satellite observational datasets, the researchers determined that the primary cause of the loss of sea ice was indeed the steady increase in human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. The impact of aerosols, solar and volcanic eruptions was found to be minimal.
Monthly analysis of increasing greenhouse gas emissions found that this process was reducing sea ice extent year-round.
Some studies, most notably from Dr. Jennifer Francis, have also found that the reduction of Arctic sea ice may be increasing the frequency of extreme weather in lower latitudes.
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