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A round of much-needed rain will pass through Southern California Saturday and Saturday night.
An upper-level shortwave will quickly pass over the region and will pull a plume of enhanced moisture with it, leading to a round of moderate rain for the region.
The heaviest rain is expected in the foothills and mountains where 1.00 to 3.00 inches is expected.
A southerly flow will bring moisture to the south-facing mountain slopes of Ventura and Santa Barbara counties.
There can be a period of heavier rain in this region Saturday afternoon through early Saturday night. With increased rainfall rates, some burn scar areas may experience localized mudslides and flooding.
Coastal and valley areas will likely see 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rain, a decent amount that is well needed. While flooding is not expected to be a widespread issue, there could be localized incidents.
Since this system will be tracking in from the west-southwest, there will be no cold air with it so snow levels will remain very high. Thus, snow is not expected in the mountains.
Beyond this system, the pattern suggests that more unsettled weather will be on the way this week for Southern California, mostly towards the second half of the week.
Models are in agreement that a strong and large upper-level low will move offshore of the Northwest early in the week. This will bring rain and snow to the Northwest and northern California Monday night through Wednesday.
Beyond Wednesday, models start to differ slightly but both the European and GFS deterministic models show this feature dipping southward into Southern California by the end of the week.
Ensemble means for both models also show this so confidence is moderate that a storm system will come through sometime Thursday to Friday night. This would result in another round of rain and even some mountain snow as there would be colder air with this system.
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As another upper-level ridge strengthens over the West this week, high temperature records will again fall in some places.
A strong upper-level ridge will remain in place over the next few days but some relief will arrive in the Northwest.
Another strong upper-level high will shift over the western U.S. this weekend through early next week resulting in intense heat.
Severe thunderstorms brought rain, wind and a wall of dust through Nevada and Arizona Monday evening.
While not as hot as Friday and Saturday, the week ahead will still offer above-average temperatures across much of the Southwest U.S. The threat for monsoonal thunderstorms will also continue.
Tropical Rainstorm Bud will fuel downpours and bring flash flooding to the Southwest through Saturday night. Next week, heat is expected to build in across the West.