Western US weather expert

Moderate rain for Southern California through Saturday night; more rain late week?

By Jordan Root, AccuWeather meteorologist
3/09/2018, 9:21:47 PM

A round of much-needed rain will pass through Southern California Saturday and Saturday night.

An upper-level shortwave will quickly pass over the region and will pull a plume of enhanced moisture with it, leading to a round of moderate rain for the region.

quick shortwave sat

A quick-moving shortwave will help produce a round of moderate rain across Southern California Saturday and Saturday night. Model shown is GFS 500 mb heights.

The heaviest rain is expected in the foothills and mountains where 1.00 to 3.00 inches is expected.

A southerly flow will bring moisture to the south-facing mountain slopes of Ventura and Santa Barbara counties.

There can be a period of heavier rain in this region Saturday afternoon through early Saturday night. With increased rainfall rates, some burn scar areas may experience localized mudslides and flooding.

Coastal and valley areas will likely see 0.50 to 1.50 inches of rain, a decent amount that is well needed. While flooding is not expected to be a widespread issue, there could be localized incidents.

sw feature rain

Since this system will be tracking in from the west-southwest, there will be no cold air with it so snow levels will remain very high. Thus, snow is not expected in the mountains.

Beyond this system, the pattern suggests that more unsettled weather will be on the way this week for Southern California, mostly towards the second half of the week.

Models are in agreement that a strong and large upper-level low will move offshore of the Northwest early in the week. This will bring rain and snow to the Northwest and northern California Monday night through Wednesday.

next storm nw early week

Beyond Wednesday, models start to differ slightly but both the European and GFS deterministic models show this feature dipping southward into Southern California by the end of the week.

Ensemble means for both models also show this so confidence is moderate that a storm system will come through sometime Thursday to Friday night. This would result in another round of rain and even some mountain snow as there would be colder air with this system.

gfs ensemble late week

long range outlook socal

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com


Comments that don't add to the conversation may be automatically or manually removed by Facebook or AccuWeather. Profanity, personal attacks, and spam will not be tolerated.

Western US weather expert